The top of the 2016 NFL[1] draft order is set and the Titans are on the clock.
Normally at this time of year we're breaking down the top quarterbacks to determine who will go No. 1.
The Titans selection of Marcus Mariota with the second selection in the 2015 draft, however, puts a new twist on the debate for the No. 1 pick in this year's draft.
Based on the top prospects in this draft class and the Titans needs, here are the five candidates most likely to go No. 1 overall, ranked five through one.
It's extremely unlikely that Jalen Ramsey goes No. 1 this year due to the position he plays.
But Ramsey is worth mentioning as he is the consensus top defensive back on the board, and the fact that the Titans had just one defensive back (Da'Norris Searcy) ranked among the top 50 players at his position, according to Pro Football Focus[2].
An argument could be made that the Titans most glaring need on defense is cornerback, which would make Ramsey a strong candidate if they were drafting two or three spots lower.
Since the AFL/NFL merger, no defensive back has gone No. 1 overall.
However, since the rookie wage scale was implemented, money is no longer a factor preventing defensive backs from earning the top spot in the draft.
In 2015, No. 1 pick Jameis Winston's contract counted as $4.6 million against the Buccaneers salary cap. That would have made him the 45th-highest paid defensive back in the league, according to Spotrac[3].
With money clearly not an issue, if the Titans believe Ramsey is the best player on the board, the selection could be justified.
No, the Titans are not going to draft Jared Goff. We can say that with extreme certainty.
But we have to consider the possibility of a trade.
The Titans don't have a glaring need that matches up with the top prospects on the board this year, so it's safe to assume they would be interested to moving out of the No. 1 spot.
The No. 1 pick rarely gets traded, but this year might present a unique situation which could lead to such a trade.
Typically the worst team in the league is sitting in that position because they need a quarterback. As a result, when a quarterback worthy of the top-pick is on the board, they simply make the selection.
This year could present the rare scenario with quarterback worthy of the No. 1 pick sitting on the board, while the team owning the No. 1 pick has no interest in him.
In fact, not since 1973[4] has a quarterback been selected No. 2 overall following a non-quarterback in the top spot.
If any team in the top 10 is seriously interested in Goff, it's likely they will at least explore the possibility of a trade with Tennessee.
The Titans allowed an NFL-worst 54 sacks in 2015, which obviously puts all the top offensive linemen on their short list of targets.
Ronnie Stanley is not the consensus top offensive linemen in this class. In fact, I was unable to find a single reputable draft analyst who ranked Stanley at No. 1 at his position.
However, nearly every analyst still included Stanley among their top-10 prospects. ESPN's Mel Kiper[5], for example, has Stanley as his No. 2 offensive lineman and No. 7 overall prospect.
Based on the seemingly unanimous analysis that Stanley is not the best option for the Titans, he would appear to be a long shot to go No. 1 overall. But NFL teams have made far stranger decisions in the past.
There's still a long evaluation process for prospects, so it's reasonable the Titans could eventually end up with Stanley at No. 1 on their draft board.
At this stage of the process, the most athletic players hold the best odds of improving their draft stock due to the nature of the offseason workout process, and Stanley appears to be one of the more talented athletes at his position.
With a strong showing at the combine, Stanley could give his stock a boost.
With talented edge-rushers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan under contract through 2018, the Titans certainly don't need to add another pass-rusher.
When a talent like Joey Bosa is on the board, however, teams think long and hard before passing him up.
In his most recent mock draft, Kiper placed Bosa at No. 1, stating he "has size and versatility that will fit any scheme, as well as the ability to go around blockers or right through them."[6]
The overwhelming majority of NFL pass-rushers win with speed or strength. Very few show the ability to dominate with both skills on an equal level.
That type of balanced skill set is what will make every team covet Bosa.
As for how he fits into an already crowded front seven in Tennessee: Orakpo's injury history makes the selection easy to justify.
Orakpo turns 30 in July and, prior to playing all 16 games for the Titans in 2015, had missed 24 games over the previous three seasons.
As previously mentioned, protecting Mariota was an issue for the Titans this past season. For that reason, Laremy Tunsil should be considered the favorite to go No. 1 overall.
But Tunsil doesn't hold this distinction by a wide margin.
Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan had a strong season, grading out as Pro Football Focus'[7] 12th-ranked offensive tackle.
Lewan, who was a team captain for the majority of the 2015 season, is still under his rookie contract through 2017, and the Titans hold a fifth-year option for the 2018 season.
Based on his performance and favorable contract, it's safe to assume Lewan's spot at left tackle is safe for the foreseeable future.
For that reason, Tunsil would likely be drafted as the Titans right tackle.
There are certainly arguments in favor of valuing the left and right tackle positions equally—Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus[8] extensively broke down this argument in 2013—but the NFL still tends to place a premium on left tackles.
Before drafting Tunsil, they would need to decide if they want to invest a high pick on the right tackle position, or if Bosa's value is too great to pass up.
References
- ^ NFL (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Pro Football Focus (www.profootballfocus.com)
- ^ according to Spotrac (www.spotrac.com)
- ^ since 1973 (www.pro-football-reference.com)
- ^ ESPN's Mel Kiper (espn.go.com)
- ^ recent mock draft (espn.go.com)
- ^ Pro Football Focus' (www.profootballfocus.com)
- ^ Pro Football Focus (www.profootballfocus.com)
