Each Monday this season, I'll tip the week off by positing five key fantasy basketball questions to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy hoops experts, thus the "Starting Five."
This week's contributors are ESPN Fantasy analyst John Cregan, ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton and yours truly, Tom Carpenter.
LeBron James[2] remains one of the best players in the world, but he ranks 26th on the Player Rater over the past month[3], behind the likes of Ricky Rubio[4] and Monta Ellis[5]. Do you expect him to return to form as a top five fantasy player this season?
Pelton: It's pretty clear that James has throttled things back a bit since Kyrie Irving[6] returned to the lineup. His usage rate is just 25.5 percent of the Cavaliers' plays when Irving is on the court, per NBA.com/Stats, as compared to 32.9 percent overall. The tradeoff for this is James has become a much more accurate shooter while turning the ball over less, but clearly those traits aren't as valuable in fantasy as they are in the real world. I'd expect James' fantasy value to bounce back a bit, but as long as Cleveland is healthy and cruising toward the top seed in the East I'm not sure there's much reason for his approach to change.
Cregan: Top five might be a stretch -- the atmosphere up there is pretty rarified - but I think there's every chance LeBron retains top-12 value. A large portion of the recent dent in LeBron's fantasy value was created by his struggles from the field. LeBron's shooting struggles have been at their most acute from the 3-point line. For the season, he's hit only 29 percent of his 3s. He's averaged only 1.2 3s a night. At his peak efficiency in Miami (2012-13), LeBron shot 41 percent from deep. But LeBron seems to be shaking his shooting slump. Also, having Kyrie Irving back has helped create space. Over the past five games, he's averaging 2.4 3-pointers per game at a 44 percent clip. If this rebound holds, LeBron will end up a top-10 player.
Carpenter: Top five, no. Top 10, perhaps. This is no commentary on his actual game; clearly he remains one of the top few players in the world. In fantasy, though, he isn't a one-man show anymore, and players need that level of workload in order to reach the upper echelon. Kyrie Irving's return to action will open up things for James, but it also will cap his touches going forward. Even more concerning is the Cavs' sole focus on winning a title, which means we should assume he will not be overworked later in the season, which will further cap his upside. Making matters more complicated is that you can't really "buy low" on him, because he remains a terrific fantasy player with a marquee name.
Nikola Mirotic[7] has averaged 16.6 PPG, 3.0 3-PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 48.1 FG% and 84.2 FT% in five January games. Do you think this is a realistic pace he can maintain going forward?
Pelton: No, probably not. Mirotic was due for a correction in his 3-point percentage after shooting 30.4 percent in November and December, but what we've seen so far in January (15-for-32, 46.9 percent from downtown) is an overcorrection. Mirotic has also been able to play more power forward thanks to Joakim Noah[8]'s absence, which -- barring a trade -- won't continue forever. His ability to successfully play small forward gives Mirotic more upside in terms of playing time, but I'd expect him to settle closer to 25-to-28 minutes per game than the 30-plus he's been playing lately.
Cregan: In a word? Yes. Plugging Mirotic in at small forward could reap huge fantasy dividends. But he reminds me a lot of Ersan Ilyasova[9] when he was at his early career peak; the numbers can be great, but there's inconsistency that needs ironing out. But with Mike Dunleavy[10] out, Mirotic will get an extended audition to hold down the three. I think he takes advantage of it and starts posting to p-40 value.
Carpenter: The good news is that coach Chicago Bulls[11] coach Fred Hoiberg said he plans to keep Mirotic in the starting lineup at small forward after Noah returns to action (perhaps Monday). Playing more on the wing should help keep his 3-point production coming, though I would think it should be more in the range of 2.0 3-PPG. Pair that up with something like 12 PPG and 6-plus RPG, and you have a quality fantasy asset. And should Derrick Rose
It appears that Bradley Beal[13] could return from his leg malady within the next week or so. What do you make of his fantasy value going forward this season?
Pelton: I think the big thing to watch for here is whether the Wizards reduce Beal's minutes in the hopes of heading off future stress injuries, along the lines of what the New Orleans Pelicans[14] have done with Jrue Holiday[15] so far this season. Beal continuing to play starters' minutes is better for fantasy owners in the short term but could have serious repercussions down the road. Either way, I might look t o sell high if Beal plays well after his return.
Cregan: Like Whiteside, Beal is also in a contract year. He is expected to push for a max deal in the offseason. One senses Beal will start that push in earnest this week. When healthy and motivated, Beal has top-25 potential. But the stress reaction issues in his leg seem to be ongoing. There also seem to be underlying chemistry issues with John Wall[16]. Those factors make it hard to pinpoint season-long potential. But if your team is struggling and you're looking to roll the dice on a buy-low opportunity, give Beal a look. The contract year factor is always huge.
Carpenter: I've been pushing Beal as a potential fantasy star since the day he was drafted by the Washington Wizards[17] in 2012, and he has proved at times that he can become just that. However, his ongoing issue with stress fractures in his leg and the nature of such injuries is making me steer clear of Beal until he proves over the course of a full season that he can stay healthy. At this point, I'd rather be behind the curve on his breakout campaign than suffer through another season of DNPs. An exception can be made if you have a struggling fantasy team and need to take chances to make a run to a title.
After a brutal start to his tenure with the New York Knicks[18] this season, Robin Lopez[19] has shown signs of life lately, averaging 12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.8 BPG, 54.9 FG% and 100 FT% in six January games. Is he settling in as a viable fantasy option or is this fool's gold?
Pelton: I'm going to go out on a limb and assume Lopez won't make 100 percent of his free throws going forward. A couple of things have really changed here. The first is Lopez getting more playing time -- up from about 24 minutes per game in 2015 to 30-plus so far in 2016. That looks like it will continue as Derek Fisher finds a rotation that gives Kristaps Porzingis[20] backup minutes at center, and that's a good sign for Lopez owners. The other improvement is coming from Lopez's usage rate, which is 19.1 percent so far in January. That's probably less likely to continue, though perhaps splitting him from Porzingis will mean more post-up opportunities.
Cregan: If that's your version of "viable," then yes, he could be settling in. But where are the rebounds? Robin Lopez's numbers have looked a little, dare I say, Brook Lopez[21]-esque. Robin is posting his lowest rebounding rate since his rookie season. The recent point production is nice, but for me, Lopez needs to be averaging at least 7 boards and 1.5 blocks to be anything more than a deep-league bench player.
Carpenter: His current production is in the range of what I projected for him during the preseason, so I've been feeling rather foolish until recently. These numbers aren't outrageous by any means, and I think he is capable of maintaining this pace, so long as he continues to play around 30 minutes per game and get around 10 shots off. Most importantly, coach Derek Fisher has made positive comments about Lopez's conditioning and effort on offense, which sounds promising.
Rudy Gobert[22]'s ADP was 18th and Hassan Whiteside[23]'s was 29th, but Whiteside is 18th on the Player Rater (based on per-game averages) and Gobert is 37th. Which big man would you rather have on your rotisserie fantasy teams the rest of the season?
Pelton: Whiteside, because as long as he stays on the court, he'll be a more productive all-around player than Gobert and that seems to be happening more lately. Two of Whiteside's three highest games in terms of minutes played have come since Christmas, and he's even getting some fourth-quarter minutes. Josh McRoberts[24] may cut into that playing time to some extent when he returns, but whether Erik Spoelstra really trusts Whiteside is the bigger factor in his playing time.
Cregan: Whiteside in a walk. When healthy, Gobert is a nice No. 1 center who can anchor your team in blocks. But Whiteside is out-producing Gobert in blocks, while also packing some considerable offensive upside. There are nights where Whiteside looks like the second-best center in fantasy (behind Anthony Davis[25]). Gobert doesn't have that type of potential. Plus, most importantly, Whiteside is in a contract year. Don't underestimate that impact.
Carpenter: I'll take Gobert. First, let's not forget he has played just 17 games this season and was battling an ankle injury before missing a long stretch with a sprained knee. Second, let's also not forget that he averaged 11.1 PPG, 13.4 RPG and 2.6 BPG after the All-Star break last season. Whiteside does have more upside on offense, but I'm not sure that plays out unless Dwyane Wade[26] or Chris Bosh[27]< /a> misses an extended stretch of action. My gut says Gobert remains the safer bet to make the bigger impact in roto leagues during the second half of the season.
References
- ^ print (espn.go.com)
- ^ LeBron James (espn.go.com)
- ^ Player Rater over the past month (games.espn.go.com)
- ^ Ricky Rubio (espn.go.com)
- ^ Monta Ellis (espn.go.com)
- ^ Kyrie Irving (espn.go.com)
- ^ Nikola Mirotic (espn.go.com)
- ^ Joakim Noah (espn.go.com)
- ^ Ersan Ilyasova (espn.go.com)
- ^ Mike Dunleavy (espn.go.com)
- ^ Chicago Bulls (e spn.go.com)
- ^ Derrick Rose (espn.go.com)
- ^ Bradley Beal (espn.go.com)
- ^ New Orleans Pelicans (espn.go.com)
- ^ Jrue Holiday (espn.go.com)
- ^ John Wall (espn.go.com)
- ^ Washington Wizards (espn.go.com)
- ^ New York Knicks (espn.go.com)
- ^ Robin Lopez (espn.go.com)
- ^ Kristaps Porzingis (espn.go.com)
- ^ Brook Lopez (espn.go.com)
- ^ Rudy Gobert (espn.go.com)
- ^ Hassan Whiteside (espn.go.com)
- ^ Josh McRoberts (espn.go.com)
- ^ Anthony Davis (espn.go.com)
- ^ Dwyane Wade (espn.go.c om)
- ^ Chris Bosh (espn.go.com)