College football is steadily becoming an offensive player's game. Back in 2008[1], an average of 470 total yards per game was enough to give a team one of the top 10 offenses in the country. Last year[2], 470 would have barely been enough to crack the top 25. The number of teams averaging at least 500 yards tripled from five in 2008 to 15 in 2015. The top 10 leaderboard in offense is a coveted spot for the hurry-up gurus and the big-play masterminds of the college football world. They represent the most feared programs in the aspect of the game that continues to get more ridiculous each season. Using last year's averages in total yards while also taking returning starters and other key players into account, here are some early predictions for the top 10 total offenses for the 2016 college football season. These aren't necessarily the most talented offenses, but they're the ones expected to put up some of the biggest numbers this fall. Having a combination of returning talent and past success is the best way to land in this predicted top 10, which is listed in alphabetical order. Elite teams such as Florida State and LSU return almost everyone on offense in 2016, but their offensive styles might not be conducive to a top-10 finish in total yardage. Others such as Ohio State and Cal have prior success but need to replace the vast majority of their starters. Which teams do you think will have a top-10 offense in total yards for the 2016 season? Shout them out in the comments section below. Here are five offenses that could make a serious run at a top-10 offense in 2016 but just missed the cut for the main list. From some Pac-12 speed demons to a new offensive juggernaut in the Big 12, these teams wouldn't shock the college football world if they put up leading numbers this fall. Arizona Anu Solomon and Nick Wilson are back to lead Rich Rodriguez[3]'s spread option system for the third straight season. While the Wildcats only went 7-6 last season, they were in the top 20 nationally for both points and yards. With a vastly more experienced offensive line in 2016, Arizona could challenge for a top-10 spot. Notre Dame The Fighting Irish ranked just outside the top 25 in both scoring and yardage last season but had the nation's eighth-most efficient offense, according to Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings[4]. While either Malik Zaire or DeShone Kizer will have tremendous potential as the quarterback of the nation's No. 6[5] offense in yards per play, the winner of that QB battle must adjust to several new starter s at key positions on the depth chart. Ole Miss Chad Kelly is back after an incredible first season with the Rebels, but he won't have his go-to receiver in Laquon Treadwell or the bulk of a front five that was led by elite left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Ole Miss' system has the potential to produce plenty of eye-popping numbers again this year, but the Rebels have some huge shoes to fill first. TCU The Horned Frogs carved out spots just behind rival Baylor in the main offensive categories the last two seasons with Trevone Boykin at the helm of the attack. TCU could very well post another top-10 offensive campaign under co-coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, but it has to replace the vast majority of its starters. Could Texas A&M transfer quarterback Kenny Hill keep the streak going? Tulsa In its first season under former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery, Tulsa was 13th nationally[6] in offensive yardage per game and made it to a bowl game. The Golden Hurricane must replace some key playmakers in Zack Langer and Keyarris Garrett, but quarterback Dane Evans has a chance to post ridiculous numbers during his second year in Montgomery's system. Yards per game in 2015: 616.2 (1st) Key returners: QB Seth Russell, RB Shock Linwood, RB Johnny Jefferson, WR KD Cannon, C Kyle Fuller Baylor comes first in this countdown due to alphabetical order, but penciling the Bears to be first in total offense by the end of the 2016 season is one of the safest bets in college football. Art Briles' offense can put up numbers that would look out of place on the old NCAA Football video game series (RIP). It has led the nation in yards and points per game in each of the last three seasons, and it was second nationally in yards per game the two seasons before that stretch. And while the Bears have to replace 20-touchdown receiver Corey Coleman and the bulk of the most successful offensive line in school history, Baylor's scheme is as plug-and-play as it comes. Case in point: Baylor was still the nation's No. 1 offense in 2015 while having to play multiple quarterbacks due to injury. It also had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers and a pair of other 500-yard rushers. "Baylor's whole identity is 'physicality travels,'" running back Johnny Jefferson, who joined Shock Linwood as a 1,000-yard rusher, told reporters[7] following the team's 49-38 victory over North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl in December. "That's all we preach. That's all we teach." Both of the Bears' big-play quarterbacks, Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham, are back, along with Linwood and the rest of the top running backs. Add that talent to yet another pillow-soft nonconference slate and you have the makings of a fourth straight No. 1 offense. Yards per game in 2015: 501.3 (15th) Key returners: QB Brett Rypien, RB Jeremy McNichols, WR Thomas Sperbeck, WR Chaz Anderson, TE Jake Roh, OT Archie Lewis, OG Travis Averill, OG Steven Baggett, OT Mario Yakoo Boise State had an underwhelming 2015 season by its lofty standards in the Mountain West Conference, but the Broncos still had one of the nation's best offenses—and almost everyone is returning. Brett Rypien took over the starting quarterback job as a true freshman and threw for 3,350 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Sophomore running back Jeremy McNichols also scored 20 touchdowns of his own on the ground and added six more as part of a passing game that returns its top two receivers. The Broncos, who also return most of their starting offensive linemen, will be on their fifth offensive coordinator since 2010 with former Eastern Washington assistant Zak Hill, who coached former Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams. According to Dave Southorn and Chadd Cripe of the Idaho Statesman[8], head coach Bryan Harsin will call plays, and Hill will bring another up-and-coming offensive brain into a coaching staff that has put together back-to-back top-15 offenses nationally. With so much rising talent coming back to a No. 15-ranked offense and what appears to be a more favorable schedule, all signs point to a bounce-back season for Boise State and a possible surge under a new-look staff of offensive assistants. Yards per game in 2015: 514.5 (11th) Key returners: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Wayne Gallman, WR Artavis Scott, WR Deon Cain, WR Mike Williams, TE Jordan Leggett, OT Mitch Hyatt, C Jay Guillermo, OG Tyrone Crowder If you thought Clemson's offense was impressive in 2015 during its run to the national championship game, there's a good chance it'll look even better this fall. The Tigers return eight starters from the offense that pushed Alabama's top-ranked defense to the brink in Glendale, Arizona. That crew, which averaged more than 500 yards and nearly five touchdowns per game, is led by early Heisman front-runner[9] Deshaun Watson and underrated 1,500-yard rusher Wayne Gallman. Clemson lost just two starters on the offensive line, an area where it showed a strong amount of depth in 2015. And while the Tigers lost No. 2 receiver Charone Peake, they'll pick up former No. 1 receiver Mike Williams, who missed almost all of 2015 due to a scary neck injury suffered during the season opener. Williams had more than 1,000 yards on just 57 catches in 2014, when Watson only played in eight games. The defending ACC champions showed last season how much damage they could do with a healthy Watson running the show, and almost every position will bring back a ton of experience this fall. Clemson plays six FBS teams—and one FCS team—that didn't make a bowl game last year, which could result in a number of lopsided scoreboards this fall for these Tigers. Yards per game in 2015: 484.1 (20th) Key returners: QB Greg Ward Jr., WR Steven Dunbar, WR Chance Allen, TE Tyler McCloskey, OG Mason Denley, C Will Noble, OG Colton Freeman One of the breakout teams of 2015, Houston burned up fields all across the country in its first year under Tom Herman, the former Ohio State offensive coordinator who helped lead the Buckeyes to a national championship. The Cougars could take their numbers even higher in 2016, and it all starts with dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Ward had more than half of Houston's 75 touchdowns last season by himself, and he nearly cracked the 4,000-yard mark in total offense despite missing some time due to injury. His potential after another offseason of preparation with a "quarterback whisperer"[10] such as Herman should be through the roof. Houston needs to replace some key starters at running back and wide receiver, but Ward still has an experienced supporting cast around him. His No. 2 through 5 receivers all return as well as the majority of the starters along the offensive line. Herman's team has more retooling to do on the defensive side of the ball, which means Ward and Co. might have to take on more responsibility after coming in 10th nationally in points per game. A second-year bump in yardage under Herman wouldn't be surprising at all for a team that has dark-horse playoff potential. Yards per game in 2015: 486.9 (18th) Key returners: RB Elijah Hood, WR Mack Hollins, WR Ryan Switzer, WR Bug Howard, OT Bentley Spain, OG Caleb Peterson, C Lucas Crowley, OT Jon Heck While Baylor has been the king of nearly every major offensive category over the last few seasons, North Carolina beat it in yards per play[11] in 2015. That's right—the Tar Heels beat the high-powered Bears in the big-play category last season. North Carolina has the potential to elevate its offensive game even more this season. Although Marquise Williams was an explosive talent at quarterback, backup Mitch Trubisky was nearly perfect in his work last season for the Tar Heels. He completed 85 percent of his 47 passes and didn't throw a single interception. What's even better for Trubisky is that he'll inherit star running back Elijah Hood and three of the top four receivers from North Carolina's uptempo run to the ACC Championship Game last season. Trubisky should be able to sling the ball effectively all over the field behind an offensive line that returns four players with good starting experience. "We established something, we're building something," Williams said following his team's loss against Baylor in December's Russell Athletic Bowl, per Andrew Carter[12] of the Raleigh News & Observer. "And I'm excited to see what the guys bring next year to the table because they're going to be greedy for more." If North Carolina's defense can continue to make strides under Gene Chizik and give the offense more opportunities to move the ball, then the Tar Heels could put up some staggering numbers in 2016. Replacing a veteran starter at quarterback isn't always easy, but Trubisky has the tools to take this attack forward. Yards per game in 2015: 530.2 (7th) Key returners: QB Baker Mayfield, RB Samaje Perine, RB Joe Mixon, WR Dede Westbrook, WR Jarvis Baxter, TE Mark Andrews, OT Orlando Brown, OG Jonathan Alvarez, OT Dru Samia The switch to Lincoln Riley's Air Raid scheme was a resounding success in Norman last season, as Oklahoma rebounded from a frustrating 2014 campaign to a 2015 season that ended with a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff berth. Riley's offense came to life with quarterback Baker Mayfield, an equally efficient and dangerous dual-threat quarterback who made a serious run at being a Heisman Trophy finalist. Mayfield had more than 4,000 yards and 43 touchdowns for the Sooners, and he'll be able to lean on the breakout talents of Dede Westbrook and tight end Mark Andrews this fall. While his numbers slipped somewhat in a new scheme alongside a new talented backup in Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine still proved he is one of the best running backs in college football with 1,349 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had three straight 100-yard games in what was a brutal November stretch. Mixon, who cracked the 700-yard mark, is also a dangerous weapon in the passing game for Mayfield. Oklahoma also has returning depth and experience on the offensive line, giving the Sooners plenty of returning starters for a 2016 season that will feature a lot of tough competition. But it's hard to imagine Oklahoma not having another top-10 year on offense with Mayfield and Perine still leading the way. Yards per game in 2015: 480.0 (22nd) Key returners: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Chris Carson, WR James Washington, WR Marcell Ateman, OT Victor Salako, OG Michael Wilson, C Brad Lundblade, OG Jesse Robinson, OT Zach Crabtree Although Oklahoma State ranked outside the top 20 in total yards per game last season, the Cowboys have the potential to join the top 10 by the end of next season thanks to a huge amount of returning starters. Mason Rudolph threw for 3,770 yards last season, and he'll have another year to fine-tune the partnership he has with big-play receiving threat James Washington. The rising junior averaged more than 20 yards per reception and scored 10 touchdowns for an Oklahoma State receiving corps that returns a handful of experienced weapons, including senior Marcell Ateman. Oklahoma State's entire offensive line remains intact for 2016, which will be a huge boost for an offense that is still searching for a legitimate rushing threat. Stanford transfer[13] Barry Sanders Jr. could be the missing piece that turns an offense that was underwhelming on the ground into an all-around force. The Cowboys also return leading rusher Chris Carson, who was a JUCO star before he arrived in Stillwater. California was the only team last season to have a top-10 offense[14] while rushing for fewer than 2,000 yards on the season. If Sanders can be the much-needed spark to the rushing attack, Rudolph's passing ability should be more than enough to make the Cowboys one of the most feared offenses in all of college football. Yards per game in 2015: 538.2 (5th) Key returners: RB Royce Freeman, WR Darren Carrington, WR Dwayne Stanford, TE Evan Baylis, OG Cameron Hunt, OT Tyrell Crosby Like Baylor, Oregon is another program that you can bank on having an elite offense year in and year out. The Ducks have finished inside the top five in total yards per game every season since 2010, when they went to the national championship game. Even when Vernon Adams Jr. was out last year, the Ducks still did enough to finish fifth nationally. Oregon's hyper-speed scheme will presumably have another FCS transfer leading the way at quarterback with Montana State pickup Dakota Prukop. The former Bobcat fits the dual-threat mold of past Duck signal-callers quite nicely, and he is already on campus preparing for the upcoming season—unlike Adams, who was excellent despite coming to Eugene in August. Prukop will enjoy giving the ball off to star running back Royce Freeman, who probably had the quietest 1,800-yard season of any rusher in Power Five football history. Oregon can spell Freeman with a number of young speedsters at running back, and they'll have six of their top seven players in receiving yardage back for another year. Oregon has been able to overcome turnover on the coaching staff and on the depth chart several times in the last few years to produce elite offensive numbers. It's just what they do in Eugene, Oregon, and another top-10 attack for the Ducks is one of the safest bets in modern college football. Yards per game in 2015: 579.5 (2nd) Key returners: QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Devin Lauderdale, WR Ian Sadler, WR Reginald Davis, OG Justin Murphy, OT Baylen Brown Texas Tech had a top-10 offense for the third straight year in 2015, trailing only the gold standard at Baylor for most yards per game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was like a surgeon in the backfield, and do-it-all playmaker Jakeem Grant was hard for any defense to slow down. Grant is gone, but Mahomes is back for just his junior year of gunslinging for the Red Raiders. He's thrown 52 touchdowns and just 19 interceptions in the last two years, and he completed 63.5 percent of his passes for a Texas Tech team that went bowling in 2015. As Matthew Conner[15] of Wreck Em Red noted, Texas Tech improved its scoring by more than two touchdowns per game last season behind Mahomes, Grant and running back DeAndre Washington. Mahomes can rely on some exciting young talent to fill in behind Grant and Washington, as the Red Raiders added a pair of tall, 4-star receivers, per 247Sports[16], to a unit that already returns its No. 2, 3 a nd 4 targets from 2015. "Length at outside receiver is something we had to get longer out there to make plays in the vertical passing game," Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury said on national signing day, per Mike DuPont[17] of the Dallas Morning News. "So I just think on the areas that we were really concerned post-season, we got those addressed and feel good about those guys coming in." Texas Tech will have to grow up some on the offensive line, but Mahomes' presence with some new, exciting vertical passing weapons should make for another year of high-flying offense under Kingsbury. Yards per game in 2015: 491.1 (17th) Key returners: QB Zach Terrell, RB Jarvion Franklin, RB Jamauri Bogan, WR Corey Davis, OG Jackson Day, C John Keenoy, OG Taylor Moton, OT Chukwuma Okorafor Western Michigan is going to be a team to watch in 2016, and not because boat-rowing head coach P.J. Fleck is one of the game's zaniest personalities. No, it's because the nation's 17th-best offense has a huge amount of talent coming back and an even greater chance for bigger numbers this fall. Zach Terrell is coming off his second straight season of 3,000 or more passing yards and 26 touchdowns through the air. Star receiver Corey Davis, who has racked up at least 1,400 receiving yards in each of the last two years, will be back to climb the national leaderboards in 2016. The Broncos will need to add at least one more go-to guy at receiver in the wake of Daniel Braverman's departure to the NFL. The Western Michigan rushing attack is somehow even more impressive, going two-deep with former MAC Freshman of the Year Jamauri Bogan and the additional versatile threat of LeVante Bellamy. Bogan was a delightful surprise in 2015 for the Broncos, who still got solid production out of 2014 star Jarvion Franklin. Together, they make a fierce, three-headed rushing menace for the Broncos. Perhaps the biggest factor working in WMU's favor for a top-10 offense is the fact it doesn't have to face the elite defenses of Ohio State or Michigan State this season. The Broncos picked up Northwestern, which needs to replace most of the starters on its defense, and Illinois to its 2016 schedule. That should open up more opportunities for big-time yardage for WMU ahead of the normal MAC fireworks. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com[18] unless otherwise noted. Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR[19].
Baylor RB Shock Linwood
Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly
Baylor QB Seth Russell
Boise State QB Brett Rypien
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson and RB Wayne Gallman
Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.
North Carolina RB Elijah Hood
Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine and QB Baker Mayfield
Oklahoma State WR James Washington
Oregon RB Royce Freeman
Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes
Western Michigan QB Zach Terrell
References
- ^ 2008 (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ Last year (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ Rich Rodriguez (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ S&P+ ratings (www.footballoutsiders.com)
- ^ No. 6 (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ 13th nationally (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ told reporters (www.usatoday.com)
- ^ Idaho Statesman (www.idahostatesman.com)
- ^ early Heisman front-runner (www.sbnation.com)
- ^ "quarterback whisperer" (www.foxsports.com)
- ^ yards per play (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ Andrew Carter (www.myajc.com)
- ^ Stanford transfer (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ top-10 offense (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ Matthew Conner (wreckemred.com)
- ^ 247Sports (texastech.247sports.com)
- ^ Mike DuPont (sportsday.dallasnews.com)
- ^ CFBStats.com (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ @JFergusonBR (twitter.com)
