USA TODAY Sports' Nicole Auerbach previews next season and which teams have the best shot of winning the national championship in 2017.
The ridiculously wild 2015-16 season is officially in the books, which means it's time to put the image of Villanova cutting down the nets[1] in the rearview mirror and turn our focus to the 2016-17 season.
Events of the offseason — players testing the NBA waters, the cycling of coaches and transfers through the landscape and the impact of more incoming freshmen choosing teams — are sure to shake things up. But for now, here's USA TODAY Sports' instant look at the way-too-early top 25 for next season.
Note: A rule change this year allows players to declare for the draft, participate in the NBA combine and one NBA team tryout. As long as they don't hire an agent, they can return to school.
1. Duke Blue Devils (25-11, 11-7)
If high-flying guard Grayson Allen decides to stay in Durham instead of turn pro, the Blue Devils will easily have a Final Four-caliber team. That's a probably the biggest if of this young offseason. Allen, who averaged 21.6 points a game in '15-16 and was the best player not named Buddy Hield or Denzel Valentine, will likely utilize the relaxed rules for early entrees to gauge his status. Regardless, coach Mike Krzyzewski will have ample talent to keep Duke in the national title hunt. A star-studded freshman class will be complemented by an experienced core made up of Luke Kennard (11.8 ppg), Matt Jones (10.4 ppg) and Derryck Thornton (7.1 ppg). And Duke's bad fortune this season could pay dividends next season. Amile Jefferson requested a medical redshirt after a broken foot kept him out for the season following a Dec. 12 injury. If he's eligible, the veteran big man would bolster the frontcourt alongside No.1 overall recruit Harry Giles, a dynamic 6-10 forward rec overing from an injury himself.
► Recruiting grade: A. Duke has hauled in the second-best recruiting class in the nation (via Rivals[2]), led by top-10 recruits Giles, Gatorade National Player of the Year Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson. The group could get better if McDonald's All American big man Marques Bolden (DeSoto, Texas) picks Duke over Kentucky.
2. Kentucky Wildcats (27-9, 13-5)
Underachieving big man Skal Labissiere is almost certainly gone for the NBA but the biggest hole will come from losing the nation's most explosive backcourt, as Jamal Murray is a projected lottery pick and there's little chance Tyler Ulis returns to Lexington. We're likely looking at a complete overhaul here again and that's just fine for John Calipari, who's bringing in the No. 1 recruiting class once again. Calipari announced that his entire roster was declaring for the draft to take advantage of the new rules allowing players to assess themselves without hiring an agent. If any key players from this past season return, it will be an added bonus in experience and veteran leadership. Don't expect this to be a dominant team right away but Calipari will have the talent to build one.
► Recruiting grade: A. The No. 1 recruiting class in the country features De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Bam Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones, all ranked in the top 26 by Rivals. The Wildcats are still in the running for Bolden. They could make a last-ditch effort at Jarrett Allen from Austin, Texas) if Bolden goes to to Duke.
3. Villanova Wildcats (35-5, 16-2)
Two of Jay Wright's most important players — four-year point guard Ryan Arcidiacono and big man Daniel Ochefu — will be gone. But the rest of the national championship roster should still remain, including leading scorer Josh Hart (15.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg), championship star Kris Jenkins and ready-to-breakout-even-more point guard Jalen Brunson.
► Recruiting grade: B. The big get is top 20 recruit Omari Spellman, a 6-9 power forward who can rebound but also has shooting range to the three-point line.
4. Oregon Ducks (31-7, 14-4)
NCAA tournament star Dillon Brooks (16.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.1 apg) suggested he'll be back for 2016-17, although his performances in an NBA draft workout or combine could change that. Tyler Dorsey (13.4 ppg) also will test NBA waters but seems poised to be back for his sophomore season. The main loss will be Elgin Cook to graduation but getting blocking machine Chris Boucher back for another season will be huge[3]. The Ducks will be the favorite to win the Pac-12 and remain in the elite category they played themselves into last season.
► Recruiting grade: A. Coach Dana Altman brings in a No. 12 recruiting class that features Payton Pritchard, a scoring point guard who could added firepower. Oregon was able to flip Pritchard from leaving his home state for Oklahoma. M.J. Cage, the son of former NBA player Michael Cage, is another top-50 level recruit.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels (33-7, 14-4)
North Carolina will lose stars Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige to graduation and much of their outlook depends on which players decide to turn pro. It's also uncertain if coach Roy Williams will be back. Luckily for the Tar Heels, the cupboard's far from bare. Odds are most of the supporting cast — Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Nate Britt and Joel Berry II — will be back, and they'll all take on larger roles. Berry, who blossomed nicely as a sophomore, especially will be expected to be a key figure.
► Recruiting grade: A. A top-10 recruiting class is headlined by big man Tony Bradley and guards Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods.
6. Xavier Musketeers (28-6, 14-4)
Villanova coach Jay Wright picked Xavier to win it all in his 2016 bracket[4]. Maybe that confidence was meant for 2017, as a bulk of the talent on Chris Mack's roster should be back. Leading scorer Trevon Bluiett is testing the NBA draft waters[5] but he's not on any mock draft boards. The Musketeers lose Ja mes Farr and Remy Abell to graduation but have other players poised to fill their voids. Xavier garnered a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament but got bounced in the second round by Wisconsin, a loss that should fuel this group in the offseason.
► Recruiting grade: A. Two top 100 players in Quintin Gooden and Tyrique Jones, the class could improve if USC transfer guard Katin Reinhardt joins.
7. Michigan State Spartans (29-6, 13-5)
Sadly, most of the cast that suffered a stunning first-round loss to Middle Tennessee State won't be back to avenge one of the worst upsets in NCAA tournament history. A No. 3 recruiting class will help make up for the major losses of National Player of the Year Denzel Valentine and fellow seniors Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello. And there's a slight chance Deyonta Davis bypasses the NBA and comes back to East Lansing, but his name is showing up pretty high on mock draft boards. That leaves point guard Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn Jr. and off-guard Eron Harris (9.3 ppg) as the two main returnees. But this freshman class is stellar. There will be growing pains with this young group, but perhaps more talent than years' past.
► Recruiting grade: A. Izzo has put together his best recruiting class led by Miles Bridges, another potential Spartans star from Flint; Detroit Jesuit star Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford and Nick Ward. It only gets better if Izzo can lure Jackson back to his home state of Michigan after playing at Prolific Prep (Napa, Calif.).
8. Virginia Cavaliers (29-8, 13-5)
With ACC Player of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and fellow seniors Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey departing, only London Perrantes remains from a renaissance era of UVa basketball that's skyrocketed the program to the top of the ACC and decently far in the NCAA tournament. That's an era coach Tony Bennett ushered in and one he plans to keep growing. Perrantes will take on a heavier role running the point and being a top offensive weapon.
► Recruiting grade: A. Bennett welcomes a No. 7 recruiting class with players that fit his system perfectly led by three-point shooter Kyle Guy, point guard Ty Jerome and small forward DeAndre Hunter.
9. Kansas Jayhawks (33-5, 15-3)
Guards Wayne Selden Jr. and Brannen Greene are leaving for the NBA, while leading scorer Perry Ellis is gone to graduation. But Kansas will be reloaded and vying for its 13th consecutive Big 12 title and more. Guards Frank Mason III and Devonte Graham return in the backcourt, and promising forward Svi Mykhailiuk and his deadly jumpshot should blossom into a bigger role. Then factor in Bill Self's unfinished recruiting class.
► Recruiting grade: Incomplete. Kansas is gunning for elite guards Josh Jackson, who some consider the best high school senior in the nation, and former Alabama commit Terrance Ferguson and already have Udoka Azubuike, a 6-11, 270-pound ferocious big man.
10. UConn Huskies (25-11, 11-7)
There's a good chance Daniel Hamilton and Rodney Purvis will both be back for coach Kevin Ollie, who's hauled in an impressive freshman class. This team will be the cream of the crop in the American Athletic Conference. Hamilton, in particular, is a special talent, averaging 12.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 4.7 rebounds a game. He'll gauge his NBA future with the new rules, but a return could forecast a Buddy Hield-like rise as a junior. His 32 points in a 4-overtime win against Cincinnati in the AAC tournament is just a glimpse of his takeover abilities.
► Recruiting grade: A. The No. 6 recruiting class features a high-motor players and a star in the making in McDonald's All American Alterique Gilbert, who comes from a dominant high school program in Miller Grove (Lithonia, Ga.).
11. Texas Longhorns (20-13, 11-7)
If leading scorer Isaiah Taylor (15.0 ppg, 5.0 apg) bypasses the NBA again, Shaka Smart will have himself another decent squad. The first season of havoc saw the Longhorns finish in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 and an early exit — off a buzzer-beater — in the NCAA tournament. The culture has now set in and expectations will rise for this program. Smart hauled in an elite recruiting class of guys who fit well in his system. Other key returnees include Kerwin Roach Jr. (7.5 ppg) and Eric Davis Jr. (7.4 ppg).
► Recruiting grade: A-. Texas has a top 15 class with three high-end players, including McDonald's All American Andrew Jones from Irving, Texas. Convincing 6-10 McDonald's All American Jarrett Allen to stay in his hometown of Austin would push this group over the top.
12. UCLA Bruins (15-17, 6-12)
2015-16 was a complete disaster for Steve Alford's team, but reinforcements should change things in 2016-17. They come in the form of a No. 5 recruiting class. Plus the returnees are all supremely talented, which makes it even more head-scratching as to why last season went the way it did. Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton will be back as seniors and the backcourt duo combined for 33 points a game last season. Fellow starters Thomas Welsh (11.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Aaron Holiday (10.3 ppg, 4.0 apg) are also back. This will be a team deep with talent, and now it's up to Alford to put it all together.
► Recruiting grade: A. Alford could have a run of success in the next few years almost exclusively thanks to one family. Lonzo Ball, the American Family Insurance ALL-USA Player of the Year, highlights this class, with his younger brother LiAngelo to follow in the Class of 2017 and point guard LaMelo in the Class of 2019. For this class, though, Lonzo and athletic power forward T.J. Leaf will be strong additions.
13. Syracuse Orange (23-14, 9-9)
The surprise Final Four team will be on everyone's radar next season. Jim Boeheim loses leading scorer Michael Gbinije and longtime marksmen Trevor Cooney to graduation but he likely returns star freshmen Malachi Richardson and Tyler Lydon, who were just scratching the surface in 2015-16.
► Recruiting grade: A- They'll be bolstered by a No. 11 recruiting class that features high-volume shooter Tyus Battle and swingman Matthew Moyer.
14. Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-8, 15-3)
All-American Kyle Wiltjer is gone to graduation and Domantas Sabonis will likely leave for the NBA. But there's a chance 7-footer Przemek Karnowski decides to use his last year of eligibility since he missed nearly all of 2015-16 with a back injury and was granted a medical redshirt. As much as the 'Zags' backcourt was criticized this past season, it came a long way, especially Josh Perkins, who should take another big step as a sophomore. The big shot in the arm for Mark Few's team comes in the form of transfers. Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss sat out last season but averaged 15.6 points, 4.9 assists and 4.7 rebounds a game in 2014-15. And Missouri transfer Jonathan Williams III (11.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg) will provide a major frontcourt boost as well.
► Recruiting grade: B. McDonald's All American Zach Collins is another big man who can pass, fitting the Gonzaga style, and top 100 recruit Zach Norvell can score from the wing.
15. Arizona Wildcats (25-9, 12-6)
After two consecutive Elite Eight teams that very well could have won it all, Sean Miller's program took a step down in 2015-16. But the cyclical effect of the sport should vault Arizona back in contention for the Pac-12 title. The Wildcats lose top scorers Ryan Anderson and Gabe York as well as longtime big man Kaleb Tarczewski, but welcome back key contributor Allonzo Trier (14.8 ppg), who should make a big leap as a sophomore. Same goes for Kadeem Allen (8.4 ppg, 3.6 apg).
► Recruiting grade: Incomplete. Miller brings in two top-20 recruits in Rawle Alkins and 6-6 point guard Kobi Simmons, both of whom will see playing time right away, but the difference maker could be Jackson, if he ends up here instead of Kansas or Michigan State.
16. Louisville Cardinals (23-8, 12-6)
Louisville's top two scorers last season — Damion Lee and Trey Lewis — were transfers, and they're both gone to graduation. Just about every other key player is back, though, and another transfer — former Penn standout Tony Hicks — figures to add needed offense. The only player that could leave for the NBA is big man Chinau Onauku (9.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg), who developed nicely last season. If he returns, coach Rick Pitino will have a lot of size. Look for players like Quentin Snider, Donovan Mitchell and Mangok Mathiang to develop into more star-like roles.
► Recruiting grade: B-. This was going to be a relatively small class anyway and the scandal seemingly would make it harder to recruit, but the Cardinals got a gem in McDonald's All American V.J. King. The 6-7 King is ranked as the No. 26 player overall by ESPN and is versatile.
17. Wisconsin Badgers (22-13, 12-6)
Leading scorer Nigel Hayes will likely be drafted, although there's a slight chance he comes back to Madison, but fierce point guard Bronson Koenig (13.1 ppg) returns alongside a much more developed cast that will have a major veteran presence next season. Big man Ethan Happ (12.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg) should take another nice jump after putting together an impressive season as a redshirt freshman. The biggest return for the Badgers, though, is coach Greg Gard, who officially became Bo Ryan's heir following a turnaround season that ended with a surprise Sweet 16 finish.
► Recruiting grade: C. Well, the coaching change and potential uncertainty hasn't helped recruiting. Wisconsin has more commits for 2017 than it does for 2016. But the Badgers also only have two scholarships to give.
18. Indiana Hoosiers (27-8, 15-3)
Do-everything floor general Yogi Ferrell is gone, but Tom Crean will keep Indiana in the Big Ten race. Remember doubting them last season when second leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. went down for the season? It's not recommended to count out the Hoosiers in 2016-17, either. Like other teams, the outlook is uncertain until NBA decisions happen. Troy Williams (13.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Thomas Bryant (11.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) both will test the waters. If either or both return, it'd be a big boost for Indiana, which will need to see reserves step up and Blackmon Jr. to become an even bigger star.
► Recruiting grade: B. The Hoosiers' class is ranked No. 2 in the Big Ten behind Michigan State. Crean has had his eye on De'Ron Davis since Davis was an eighth grader, and the 6-10 power forward should emerge of the star of this group.
19. Oklahoma Sooners (29-8, 12-6)
The Buddy Hield era is over in Norman, but there's still a bevy of talent left over, starting with off guard Jordan Woodard (13.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 46% three-point shooting). Promising big man Khadeem Lattin also returns and his paint presence will have a lot to do with the Sooners' success next season. Establishing an identity will be crucial for this team's success in 2016-17.
► Recruiting grade: B. Coach Lon Kruger is bringing in a No. 23 recruiting class to reload led by top 50 shooting guard Kameron McGusty. Kristian Doolittle, from nearby Edmond, does the dirty work and could become a local favorite.
20. Miami Hurricanes (27-8, 13-5)
The dynamic backcourt of Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan is gone to graduation, but most of the supporting cast is back for coach Jim Larrañaga, who welcomes a top-10 recruiting class. The most important of those freshmen will be forward Dewan Huell, a local product. The key returnees are guards Davon Reed and Ja'Quan Newton, who will take on bigger responsibilities with Rodriguez and McClellan departed.
► Recruiting grade: A-. Huell has the potential to be the next great Hurricane from South Florida. Keeping him at home was a huge boon. Top 50 shooting guard Bruce Brown was another good get and adds toughness.
21. Southern California Trojans (21-13, 9-9)
Virtually everyone is back for coach Andy Enfield, who had USC peaking mid-season before showing their youth on the latter part of the season. Key contributor Katin Reinhardt transferred but his void is filled with Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron. This was a balanced offense in 2015-16, as six players averaged close to double figures; four of them were underclassmen, led by leading scorer Jordan McLaughlin (13.4 ppg, 4.7 apg). The talent and experience is there for a Pac-12 title, it's just a matter of getting the chemistry down and peaking at the right time next season.
► Recruiting grade: B. USC signed three players in the early period, two from Southern California in guards Jonah Mathews and De'Anthony Melton. Forward Harrison Henderson comes to USC from Texas. Mathews is ranked as the No. 70 player by ESPN. Aside from highlight-reel worthy dunks, Melton comes from a winning program.
22. Florida State Seminoles (20-14, 8-10)
Dwayne Bacon's decision to return is a big boost for an FSU team that underachieved last season; Bacon averaged 15.8 points a game last season. That's especially the case with Malik Beasley surely gone to the NBA. And Xavier Rathan-Mayes (11.8 ppg) is another explosive scorer on the roster. But the main reason this team will be vastly improved is based on coach Leonard Hamilton's top-10 recruiting class.
► Recruiting grade: B+. Jonathan Isaac, a 6-10 five-star power forward, mulled trying to from IMG Academy to the NBA draft but has since reaffirmed his intent to attend Florida State. Mfiondu Kabengele, a 6-8 small forward, is Dikembe Mutombo's nephew
23. Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-17, 7-11)
Coach Ben Howland had a rough first season but the future looks incredibly bright in this rebuilding project. Mississippi State loses its top two scorers but could return great young talent in Malik Newman and Quinndary Weatherspoon should Newman hold off on his NBA future. Howland welcomes a top-five recruiting class — giving the Bulldogs enough talent to compete in the SEC if they can mesh it all together.
► Recruiting grade: A: Hard to argue with six top 100 players, including top 30 talents in center Schnider Herard and small forward Mario Kegler.
24. Saint Mary's Gaels (29-6, 15-3)
Randy Bennett's team barely missed the field of 68 as an at-large this past season, after finishing with a regular-season title in the West Coast Conference. The top eight scorers are back from last season's roster and there's no reason Saint Mary's shouldn't be an NCAA tournament team in 2016-17. Australian guard Emmett Naar is the latest foreign product-turned superstar for the Gaels, averaging 14.0 points and 6.4 assists a game. Fellow Australian Dane Pineau (11.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg) hit his stride last season and should have another gear.
► Recruiting grade: B. A good group here led by 6-1 point guard Jordan Ford. At 7-1, Jock Perry is an intriguing prospect.
25. Virginia Tech Hokies (20-15, 10-8)
Coach Buzz Williams' Hokies had a quietly solid season in 2015-16 — winning seven of their last nine and finishing in seventh place in the 15-team ACC — and are poised for bigger things in 2016-17. Two transfers, Zach LeDay (15.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Seth Allen (14.7 ppg), were the main catalysts last season. Both are set to return with a cast of underclassmen who now have big-time experience. Expect Virginia Tech to be in the mix in the ACC.
► Recruiting grade: B-. Khadim Sy, a 6-10 post player, is the lone recruit in the class to this point, but he has make great strides at Oak Hill Academy (Mouth of Wilson, Va.) this season.
25 other teams considered: Cincinnati, SMU, Dayton, VCU, Notre Dame, N.C. State, Seton Hall, Butler, Georgetown, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Maryland, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, UNLV, Monmouth.
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Contributing: Josh Barnett
PRESEASON TOP 25 TEAMS
References
- ^ Villanova cutting down the nets (www.azcentral.com)
- ^ Rivals (basketballrecruiting.n.rivals.com)
- ^ blocking machine Chris Boucher back for another season will be huge (www.azcentral.com)
- ^ picked Xavier to win it all in his 2016 bracket (www.azcentral.com)
- ^ testing the NBA draft waters (www.azcentral.com)
- ^ Last Slide (www.azcentral.com)
- ^ Next Slide (www.azcentral.com)
