Top 2016 Offseason Priorities for the Minnesota Timberwolves

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The Minnesota Timberwolves ^[1] have a new coach and president of basketball operations in Tom Thibodeau, which was an excellent first step in their offseason. In fact, you could say they've already won the offseason.

The timeliness of that deal is also beneficial to the future of the franchise.

Thibodeau will get his choice in the draft and free agency, and with time to prepare for both. And considering his depth of knowledge and work ethic, he's going to do both of those things well.

New-and-Improved Thibs?

Thibodeau's credentials are impressive, and the Timberwolves should be very optimistic. During his time with the Bulls ^[2], in spite of injury concerns, Thibs won almost 65 percent of his games and made it to the playoffs every year.

From 2010-11 to 2014-15 (his Chicago years), his Bulls had the best defense in the NBA ^[3] according to Basketball-Reference.com ^[4]. Before that, he ran the Boston Celtics ^[5] defense from 2008-10, and their defensive rating ^[6] led the league. Prior to that, during his four-year stint with the Houston Rockets ^[7], they were third ^[8]. And in his seven years as a New York Knicks ^[9] assistant, they were fourth ^[10].

There's every reason to expect that can continue with the T-Wolves. The fit between team and coach is extraordinary, but first, let's address the big concern that Timberwolves fans may (justifiably) have.

Thibodeau's ouster from Chicago, in spite of his success, was due to his tendency to overplay stars, essentially running them into the ground. Luol Deng ^[11], Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah ^[12] and even Jimmy Butler may have had their careers shortened because of this.

Steve Dykes/Associated Press

Visions of Thibodeau playing Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine and Karl-Anthony Towns 40 minutes a night are not unrealistic.

There are factors that hint he may have learned a thing or two during his season off, though, and adjusted his way of thinking on playing time. Tom Haberstroh went on The Lowe Post ^[13] with ESPN's Zach Lowe and discussed Thibodeau's year off and his encounter with the coach during the Sloan conference:

I've never seen someone smile and laugh so much in my life. I'm not even doing like a handicap for Thibs, who seems like he's the grumpiest guy in the NBA. But the dude is just so happy, and he seemed so alive and so giddy. And he was the opposite of what I imagined him to be. He was like the happiest guy at Sloan. And it just seems like he's healthier and refreshed and invigorated.

So, at least it appears that he's been personally rejuvenated by the year off. And according to Haberstroh in the podcast, Thibodeau also spent a lot of time going from team to team and watching how other teams ran things:

To Thibodeau's credit, when he left—this biometric Catapult thing is exploding at such a high rate that his sabbatical, going around the league and seeing what other teams are doing, I'm sure, just because everything is going so fast, he's probably learned a lot more than if he had just stayed with the Bulls. Because when you're with the same team in the same bunker and don't get to see what the other teams are doing, you might think you're one of the top teams [when you're not].

And I think Thibodeau, going around the league and seeing what they do on and off the court, I think it's going to help immensely. I'm probably more bullish on him listening to that stuff than most people are. Because he didn't see what other teams are doing, and last year was probably a huge, huge blessing.

In addition, Thibodeau was at Sloan to be on the Hack-a-Stat ^[14] panel, which included discussions on Catapult biometrics (wearable technology that tracks player movement and monitors fatigue). So that, at least, suggests more openness to advancement.

Finally, Thibodeau brought in Scott Layden to be the general manager handling day-to-day operations for the team. That he brought in Layden from the San Antonio Spurs ^[15]—considered to be the quintessential franchise on the cutting edge of these things—is telling, particularly considering that the Spurs were one of the teams he spent time with.

Bring the Backcourt Together

Steve Dykes/Associated Press

Part of what makes the Timberwolves such an ideal situation is that the parts are already in place for an extraordinary team. It was just a matter of getting the right builder to put them together, and Thibodeau will be able to do that.

Here is a look at players currently under contract for the 2016-17 season:

2016-17 Timberwolves Contracts
PLAYER	POS.	2016-17
Ricky Rubio	PG	$13,400,000
Nikola Pekovic	C	$12,100,000
Kevin Garnett	PF	$8,000,000
Andrew Wiggins	SF	$6,006,600
Karl-Anthony Towns	C	$5,960,160
Nemanja Bjelica	PF	$3,800,000
Zach LaVine	PG	$2,240,880
Shabazz Muhammad	SF	$3,046,299
Adreian Payne	PF	$2,022,240
Gorgui Dieng	C	$2,348,783
Tyus Jones	PG	$1,339,680
Damjan Rudez	SF	$1,199,000

Spotrac.com

The only contract that has any option right now is Damjan Rudez's ^[16], and that's a team option. The only bad contract in the bunch is Nikola Pekovic's, which will look a lot better when bigger contracts start being inked around the league this summer.

Minnesota will have a $3.2 million cap hold (tentatively) on the No. 5 pick, which will put the T-Wolves at roughly $63 million ^[17], meaning they'll have $29 million to spend with the new cap expected to be $92 million.

And they don't have any big "holes" in their starting roster. Ricky Rubio is not a shooter, but he's a brilliant facilitator and, according to ESPN.com's ^[18] Defensive Real Plus-Minus, he's the second-best defensive point guard in the league. Thibodeau will probably like that.

LaVine went from backup point guard to starting shooting guard after the All-Star break and quietly broke out in the role, averaging 16.4 points, on 48 percent shooting from the field and 43.7 percent on 5.4 three-point attempts per game. Throw in 2.8 assists and 2.5 rebounds, and you've got the makings of a legitimately good starting shooting guard.

Wiggins is a Luol Deng/Jimmy Butler waiting to happen. His 7'0" wingspan ^[19], tremendous athleticism and defensive instincts are tailor-made to Thibodeau's system, which emphasizes pushing the ball to the sides, sealing off passing lanes and forcing contested mid-range shots.

Under Thibodeau, he could quickly blossom into the All-Star the 'Wolves were hoping he'd become when they secured him as the prize in the 2014 Kevin Love trade.

Unleash the Bigs

Brandon Dill/Associated Press

Gorgui Dieng played a good chunk of his minutes at power forward this year. During the 1,128 minutes he logged with Towns, the pair had a net rating of plus-3.7, according to NBA.com ^[20]. Dieng gives Thibodeau a 4 with decent range (46.2 percent ^[21] from 10-16 feet last year) who can also play on the other half of the court.

Dieng could fill the Taj Gibson role for the T-Wolves quite well, rotating in help defense and leaving Towns to be the rim protector. But at the same time, he could provide the same things that first Carlos Boozer and then Pau Gasol ^[22] offered on offense for the Bulls (i.e. a high pick-and-pop partner for Rubio or LaVine).

Because of how Thibodeau will use him, expect Dieng to benefit more than any Timberpup with his new tutor. Wiggins, LaVine andTowns are going to be stars whoever coaches them; Dieng will blossom specifically because of Thibodeau.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

And then there's the star of the franchise, Towns, whose player efficiency rating and win shares per 48 minutes were matched almost exclusively ^[23] by players who have gone (or will go) into the Hall of Fame. Imagine 2013-14 Noah on cheat code, and you'll have KAT under Thibs.

Towns isn't just a rising star; he's a franchise-caliber player with a ceiling of best player in the league. And Thibodeau has already helped Rose to win an MVP and Noah to finish fourth. It's almost not a question of whether Towns' will bring one home, but when.

Stacy Bengs/Associated Press

Oh, and expect his assist numbers to go way up.

Off the bench, Nemanja Bjelica has the potential to fill the "Nikola Mirotic" role as a stretch 4. He might even do it better, as he shot 38.4 percent from deep last year.

Shabazz Muhammad is a competent scorer, particularly in the post, but he may not see much court time under his new coach if he doesn't step up the other end of his game. His DRPM was last among small forwards at minus-4.44. The second-worst was Nick Young at minus-3.47. So it would take significant improvement just for him to not be the worst.

Still, Thibodeau made Kyle Korver into a competent defensive player, and maybe he can do the same with Muhammed, who has already worked very hard to become a better NBA scorer.

Patience

Kamil Krzaczynski/Associated Press

The bench is not a strong point, but it's young and can be developed. It can also be supplemented via the draft and free agency, and that's where Thibodeau should invest his energy this offseason.

There will be an understandable temptation to bring in some of his favorites from Chicago. He might want to trade for Butler, whom he still has a good relationship ^[24] with and who is rumored to be on the trading block ^[25], as Ethan Skolnick told CBS Sports. But it's in the T-Wolves' best interest to be patient and let the kids blossom into stars together.

Trades in the NBA should be for one of two things: talent or a title. If you're rebuilding and you want to add a star player or foundation, it's a sensible move. If you're competing for a title and looking for that last piece that will put you over the top, it makes sense.

Barring one of those two things, trades end up being little more than running in place, and the Timberwolves have the talent they need and aren't close to a title.

It also might be tempting to pursue Noah in free agency, but Noah would expect (and deserve) starting minutes, and that would impede the development of Dieng or Towns.

Executive Thibodeau needs to focus on fleshing out the roster he already has, adding role players to the bench who can make this team deep enough that Coach Thibodeau can trust and play them.

The Right Move

That leaves two primary holes to fill.

First, Minny needs to add a backup point guard. On this front, it's almost impossible to go wrong. Tyus Jones is there, but he was a mixed bag in his rookie season. His 3.56 assist-to-turnover ratio ^[26] after the break is promising, but the sample size of 463 minutes is kind of small. There's room for him to improve, but it's too early to entrust him with the team if Rubio goes down for a spell, which is a reasonable fear.

Thibodeau had an almost supernatural ability to make lemonade out of backup point guard lemons in Chicago, turning the likes of C.J. Watson, John Lucas III, Nate Robinson, D.J. Augustin and Aaron Brooks into regular contributors.

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

Imagine what he can do with a guy who isn't on a minimum contract. Names that spring to mind are Jeremy Lin, Jordan Clarkson or Brandon Jennings ^[27]—all guys who can score and generate offense. For the backup point guard, with Thibs at the helm, defense wouldn't be that big of a concern; he's brilliant with hiding weaknesses on that end.

While the Lakers ^[28] would actually have the cap space to match any offers to Clarkson, who is a restricted free agent, there are questions as to whether they would want to. ESPN's Stephen A. Smith suggested ^[29] that they want to ink DeMar DeRozan, who would gobble up quit e a bit of their cap space (though they could get him and keep Clarkson).

The problem, though, is that they already have D'Angleo Russell, whom they're supposed to be building around, and Lou Williams, who has three more years on his deal. Then throw in the presumed pursuit of Kevin Durant ^[30] into the mix, and things could get dicey.

If Thibodeau were to reach an agreement with Clarkson quickly, that could put the Lakers in a bind where they don't have the money for two max contracts and the ability to match.

The T-Wolves also need a two-way wing who can hit the three. The problem with that is every team that isn't the Golden State Warriors ^[31] is looking for the same thing. So that guy might not be so easy to find. And with Minnesota not being exactly the friendliest climate to live in, it might be a smidge harder to get someone there.

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Still, a contract in the range of $12-15 million would be enough to entice someone like Courtney Lee or Evan Fournier to move to the Twin Cities and fill the role the T-Wolves need.

But the primary place Thibodeau should look is the NBA draft, where Buddy Hield (45.7 percent from three) or Jamal Murray (40.8 percent) could be the knockout answer.

Salary and cap figures courtesy Spotrac.com ^[32].