NFL Mock Draft 2016: 1st-Round Projections and Top Underrated Prospects

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With the 2016 NFL ^[1] draft less than a month away and the major moves in free agency behind us, we're starting to get a clearer picture of how the first round may play out.

The draft is notoriously unpredictable, of course, but we can slowly start narrowing down each team's logical choices based on its needs and the players likely to be available to it when it makes its selection.

Let's take a look at my latest mock draft before breaking down some of the key selections early in the draft and a few underrated prospects:

2016 NFL Mock Draft
Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tennessee Titans	Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
2	Cleveland Browns	Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
3	San Diego Chargers	Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
4	Dallas Cowboys	Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
6	Baltimore Ravens	DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
7	San Francisco 49ers	Jared Goff, QB, California
8	Philadelphia Eagles (from MIA)	Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
10	New York Giants	Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
11	Chicago Bears	Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
12	New Orleans Saints	A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama
13	Miami Dolphins (from PHI)	William Jackson III, CB, Houston
14	Oakland Raiders	Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
15	Los Angeles Rams	Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis
16	Detroit Lions	Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
17	Atlanta Falcons	Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
18	Indianapolis Colts	Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
19	Buffalo Bills	Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
20	New York Jets	Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
21	Washington	Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
22	Houston Texans	Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
23	Minnesota Vikings	Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
24	Cincinnati Bengals	Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
25	Pittsburgh Steelers	Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
26	Seattle Seahawks	Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
27	Green Bay Packers	Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
28	Kansas City Chiefs	Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
29	Arizona Cardinals	Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky
30	Carolina Panthers	Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State
31	Denver Broncos	Robert Nkemdiche, DT/DE, Ole Miss

The Tennessee Titans have a huge decision to make at No. 1 that will affect the entire draft board. At this point, it appears as though they have three options they're likely to consider:

Trading the pick, presumably to a team that wants Carson Wentz or Jared Goff
Selecting Florida State cornerback Jalen Ramsey
Selecting Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil

While the first option still seems very possible—and probably ideal for Tennessee, which could stockpile picks by moving out of the top overall slot—I'm not going to base my current mock draft on the possibility of a trade. So, if the Titans do stay put at No. 1, who are they more likely to draft?

And the answer to that will come down to whether the Titans value the position or the player more.

If they value the position more, they'll draft Tunsil. Outside of quarterback, perhaps no position is more valuable than offensive tackle, and Tunsil is clearly the top option at the position this year and just as clearly is a top-five player in this draft.

But if they value the player more, Ramsey will likely be the pick. It's rare that players with Ramsey's size (6'1", 209 lbs), athleticism, experience, instincts and versatility—he can play both cornerback and safety—hit the NFL draft. Plus, there are questions about Tunsil's scheme fit in Tennessee, as Peter King ^[2] of MMQB noted:

It's been thought that Tunsil was more logical, but there are a few things making Tennessee do more homework on him. He is a natural left tackle, to be sure. But he isn't a classic downhill left tackle, which the Titans want; they just traded for bullish back DeMarco Murray ^[3] and want to run the ball significantly. And players with history in a college spread offense, like Tunsil, have to adjust, and that's no sure thing.

Ramsey, meanwhile, seems to be exactly the type of player the Tennessee defense needs, as King noted:

He's a 6-1, 210-pound specimen with the ability to cover the kind of big receivers the league is fielding today. He can play cornerback, he can move inside and cover the slot receiver, and he can play a centerfield kind of safety if need be. He's the kind of versatile defensive back every coach wants. The Titans have a crying need at tackle, after allowing more sacks than any other team in football last fall. But they also need a corner and a nickel defender, and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau would froth at the chance to use a player with the blitzing and tackling skills of Ramsey.

That makes a strong case for Ramsey. But here's the kicker: Quarterback is the most important position in football. The Titans have a young franchise quarterback in Marcus Mariota they want to protect. If the Titans believe Tunsil can become an elite or even very good left tackle who will protect Mariota for the next decade, they have to take him.

And that's why they'll do just that.

At No. 2, the Cleveland Browns can't trust Robert Griffin III ^[7] enough as the starter to ignore the chance to take either Wentz or Goff, whoever falls to them. This is an organization that hasn't had a franchise quarterback since Bernie Kosar. The Browns aren't going to pass up the chance to potentially draft one.

Ditto for the San Francisco 49ers at No. 7, who could be looking for Colin Kaepernick ^[8]'s replacement if he changes his mind and takes the pay cut ^[9] the Denver Broncos requested, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport (h/t Yahoo Sports' Shalise Manza Young), or if the two sides agree on compensating Kaepernick at his current rate. Regardless, Denver's need for a franchise quarterback and the reported rift between Kaepernick and the Niners organization, per NFL Network's Rand Getlin ^[10], make it seem as though a deal might yet get done.

And while Kelly's offense does operate well with a mobile quarterback, it's just as important having a quarterback able to make quick, correct reads and deliver the ball accurately and on time. In that regard, Goff would be the perfect fit.

Which leads to one of the more interesting picks in the first round, the Philadelphia Eagles. There are three ways the Birds could likely go with this pick:

Addressing a need on the offensive line by selecting Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley
Addressing a need at cornerback by selecting Florida's Vernon Hargreaves III
Addressing a need at running back by selecting Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott

Stanley isn't a top-eight player in this draft, so I'm removing his name from the running first. The Eagles have too many needs to reach with this pick.

That leaves Hargreaves and Elliott, and it's a tough call.

From a positional-value standpoint, Hargreaves makes more sense. Whereas running backs can often be unearthed in the later rounds, elite cornerbacks are hard to come by, and the Eagles have been shaky at the position since the days of Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown.

But look at what the Eagles have done this offseason. They signed corners Leodis McKelvin and Ron Brooks in free agency and re-signed Nolan Carroll. They still have 2015 second-round pick Eric Rowe on the roster, and JaCorey Shepherd showed promise in training camp before tearing his ACL last year.

Meanwhile, last year's starting running back, DeMarco Murray, was traded to the Tennessee Titans this offseason, while Ryan Mathews was also reportedly put on the trade block ^[11], per NFL.com's Conor Orr (but hasn't been moved to this point). Mathews is currently atop the depth chart, but injuries have always been a concern in his career.

And while Darren Sproles ^[12] has remained effective in his scat-back role, he's 32 years old.

In other words, the Eagles could use a franchise running back, and Elliott looks like a potentially elite option. He's one of the more complete backs to hit the NFL in years, as he's also excellent coming out of the backfield as a receiver and is a sturdy blocker in pass protection, and he looks like the perfect fit for new head coach Doug Pederson's scheme.

"I think I'm a guy who's going to work and work hard from day one, and I think I'm a guy who brings a lot of versatility to the position," Elliott said at the NFL Scouting Combine, per Bart Hubbuch ^[13] of the New York Post. "I'm a guy who can play all three downs, and I excel in all areas of the game."

Scouts and talent evaluators seem to agree with him, a large reason why he seems likely to be a top-10 pick and why he probably won't get past the Eagles at No. 8.

As for underrated prospects, one player who seems to be all over the board is Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah, who could sneak into the first round.

Ogbah has been knocked for being inconsistent and for not exactly being sturdy against the run. He's also incredibly explosive and athletic, the sort of things you can't teach. Ogbah can become more consistent. He can become more physical.

Will he?

I'm not sure. But at the end of the first round, I'd take a gamble on him based on his upside and athleticism.

Arizona's Scooby Wright continues to be undervalued as well. If he had played more than three games during the 2015 season—he missed time with an injury—and had more natural athleticism, he'd be a no-brainer first-round pick given his instincts and feel for the position.

Nonetheless, he'll be a starter in the NFL for a long time and a heck of a value in the second or third round.

Su'a Cravens is a player you don't see crack first-round projections often, but for a team who knows how to use a safety-linebacker hybrid like Cravens—think Arizona's Deone Bucannon here—he'll be a difference-maker, likely in the second or third round.

Finally, don't sleep on Kansas State guard Cody Whitehair, who may be a bit undervalued because of his position—guards don't tend to go terribly high in the draft—but is versatile enough to play any position on the line. He should be a second-round pick with first-round value.

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter ^[16].