No prospect who enters the NFL[1] draft is without flaws, no matter how athletically or fundamentally special he is. At times, these flaws are overstated and unreasonably detract from a prospect's abilities. And other times, these flaws are pushed aside in favor of overly optimistic projections.
It's important to appreciate this balance for top-end prospects and keep in mind that each player has pros and cons on the scouting report.
Of the projected top 10 prospects in the 2016 class, each has at least a few areas to improve. Here, I'll determine whether those flaws are major, minor or imagined and decide whether each player deserves to be taken early in the 2016 NFL draft.
With the Rams making the astronomical move to the top of the 2016 NFL draft, per Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com[2], we're almost guaranteed to have one and possibly two quarterbacks go in the top two overall picks. Wentz, with his ideal physical build and experience in a relatively pro-style offense, seems to be the likely top contender to be the first overall pick.
Wentz is far from a refined prospect and, in my opinion, isn't worth the top overall draft pick. With an ideal frame and top-flight arm talent and plus-mechanics, he could continue to develop and emerge as a high quality NFL starter. But he still needs to improve his route anticipation, timing on mid-field throws and overall confidence when forced off his initial read in the pocket.
His concerns stem from a lack of development in an NFL-level offense, and his flaws are coachable at the NFL level. But he won't be any team's immediate savior, and if he's rushed or doesn't land in an offense that's conducive to his development, he could suffer throughout his first few years in the NFL.
Carson Wentz offers the higher upside of the perceived top two quarterbacks, but Jared Goff appears to be much more pro-ready mentally and play progression-wise. Showing off awesome anticipation and timing, he thrived in his three- and four-wide set offense that allowed him to spread defenses laterally and shred them with interior-breaking routes.
But at the NFL level, Goff won't have the benefit of spread-out defenses and the confidence in a system he played in for three straight years. Goff's offense is actually a hindrance for his NFL projection, as the Air Raid offense California utilized during his career (or at least a variation of it) hasn't been conducive to a smooth NFL transition. After growing so comfortable in his college offense and reliant on the system, Goff may have a sharp developmental curve before he's confident and efficient in any NFL offense he lands in.
That said, Goff's confidence in the pocket and flashes of top-flight anticipation should make him a quality NFL quarterback in time. With similarities to Teddy Bridgewater in size and arm-talent limitations but flashes of awesome anticipation and finishing ability, Goff should be able to step in right away as a competent NFL starter but will need at least a year before he can maximize his anticipation and pocket-presence upside.
For Ezekiel Elliott, positional value is the only thing holding him back from being perceived as one of the top-tier prospects in the class. But it's time to put those concerns behind us in the draft process. After Todd Gurley nearly ran away with the Rookie of the Year honors despite missing the first four weeks, it became clear that running backs who can carry an offense are worth high first-round picks.
In Elliott's case, it's hard to hate on any aspect of his game. As a runner, he is reminiscent of Edgerrin James, playing with awesome balance as he works down the line and exploding with ideal pad level and plus-acceleration through traffic.
Couple that running upside with proficiency and experience as a run-blocker, pass-blocker and pass-catcher and Elliott becomes one of the safest and most immediate impactful prospects in the 2016 class. Like Gurley last year, having a running back talent like Elliott in the backfield can make even a poor offense productive. He can set the tone as an offensive catalyst for a rebuilding or retooling offense.
The class' best left tackle and one of the best pass-blockers of the last decade of drafts, Laremy Tunsil was all set to be the No. 1 overall pick until the Titans moved from first to 15th overall. Now, Tunsil's draft position is a bit in flux, but a talent like him likely won't fall past the top six picks.
Tunsil's lateral quickness and overall athleticism at the left tackle position put him in a tier above offensive tackle prospects because he offers immediate pass-blocking capabilities against 3-4 outside linebackers and speed rushers. And while he still needs to refine his footwork and still has trouble with power rushers, Tunsil's issues are easy to work through during his rookie season.
Those looking for limitations or possible long-term concerns with Tunsil, at least on the field, are looking too far. Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame has effort and tenacity questions. Jack Conklin of Michigan State has lateral athleticism concerns. Taylor Decker of Ohio State has finishing-strength question marks. None of the other 2016 draft's offensive linemen is in the same tier as Tunsil.
The perceived second-best offensive tackle in the 2016 class, Stanley's breakout redshirt sophomore season in 2014 vaulted him to a first-round prospect before he opted to stay in school for his junior season and further enhance his draft stock. With elite lateral balance and fluidity and refined pass-blocking technique and body positioning, Stanley looks the part of a premier left tackle prospect for an NFL team to plug and play as a starter.
But as alluded to earlier, Stanley has some serious concerns that an NFL team will need to confront before it can trust him as a safe offensive line prospect. First, his issues against Shaq Lawson of Clemson this year, a powerful yet refined edge-rusher, may be highlight his troubles with stronger edge players. Second and more importantly, Stanley's lack of on-field passion and tenacity will concern pro teams about his desire to get better and embrace the challenges of being an NFL offensive lineman.
Stanley can erase his passion and tenacity concerns during his NFL tenure if he surprisingly shows up to training camp ready to grow into one of the NFL's best pass-blockers, a goal that's attainable based on his play the last two seasons at Notre Dame. But it won't come without risk.
Showing quality but not quite elite production during his college career, DeForest Buckner isn't often thrust into the discussion of top overall prospects. But he deserves that type of consideration. The 6'6" defensive end with experience as a 5-technique and a strong-side defensive anchor may never produce 10-12 sacks per year, but his value to his future NFL defense will go far beyond his individual stats.
Buckner's ability to penetrate on the interior and as a head-up edge-rusher in the passing game gives him the versatility to play in every defense and force offensive lines frequently off balance. Similar to J.J. Watt (though expecting that upside is unrealistic), Buckner can set the tone for a defensive game plan and, just by his presence and demanding of extra attention, allow his teammates to produce.
Buckner's concerns stem from being potentially too tall to work on the inside of an NFL defensive line, his lack of dominant pass-rush upside and perceived good, not elite, upside. But with awesome one-on-one strength and versatility to threaten a defense from multiple alignments, Buckner's concerns are not only minor but could allow him to slip far further than a player of his defensive capability should.
Considered college football's best defender coming into the season, Joey Bosa was the unquestioned leader on the field for the Buckeyes defense that hosted as many as six top-100 prospects. He set the tone of the defense, working as the primary strong-side defensive end and forcing defenses to run away from his side or double-team him.
Despite high expectations and a high-level junior and final season at Ohio State, Bosa's draft stock has taken a slight hit in the post-draft process. Concerns about his perceived lackluster pass-rushing upside and off-field red flags[3] have pushed him toward the bottom of the top 10 after spending much of the 2015 season in the mix for the top overall draft pick.
But Bosa's ability to take advantage of one-on-one pass protectors or mistakes by blockers in space should translate well to the NFL level. While he's perceived as more of a try-hard edge player rather than a top-end athlete who will ease into the NFL, Bosa has produced in too many ways and dominated too many interior and outside blockers in his college career to not have NFL success as well. He would find the most success in a 4-3 defense as a strong-side edge player (especially in Dallas and Tampa Bay), but letting an elite run defender and plus-power rusher slip would be a poor mistake by a team in the top 10 of the draft.
As an undersized linebacker (6'1", 245 lbs) with just one career sack and coming off a major injury, Myles Jack gives teams plenty of reason for pause when considering him as a top-10 draft pick. Any one of those three reasons could be enough to drop an off-ball linebacker down draft boards.
And it's likely that NFL teams already have. Jack isn't a perfect fit for every defense, and his injury history (and lack of speedy recovery) alone could rule him out for some teams.
But every NFL defense should covet a talent like Jack. Possessing elite coverage ability, he should be able to match up with slot receivers, tight ends and running backs with ease at the NFL level. And with elite range and upfield explosiveness, Jack fits perfectly into what teams covet in a linebacker. With linebackers forced to play in space more often than ever before and with a focus on horizontal stretching for NFL offenses, linebackers like Jack will not only become featured parts of defenses but essential to handle NFL running games and short-passing offenses.
A three-year starter in the SEC, Vernon Hargreaves III emerged as the country's best and most technically refined cornerback. Handling receivers big and small and both jump-ball and vertical speed types, Hargreaves enters the NFL with experience to play on the perimeter against all types of pass-catchers.
However, as a sub-6'0" cornerback, some NFL teams may fear that his lack of height may limit his long-term upside. The NFL has a strong preference on longer, more physical cornerbacks based on the Seattle Seahawks model, to which Hargreaves doesn't fit.
That said, passing on a remarkably pro-ready and experienced cornerback because he doesn't meet the ideal thresholds seems like a terrible idea for top-tier teams. With three- and four-wide sets becoming more common, NFL teams need three or four quality cornerbacks who can fill both outside and slot positions. Hargreaves offers the rare ability to fill every cornerback position, handle all types of receivers based on his college experience and, despite his size limitations, should be a plug-and-play high-quality starter.
Possessing elite athleticism and experience at both cornerback and safety, Jalen Ramsey is a generational talent who, with the right development, could become a franchise-changing defensive back.
But for all that promise, Ramsey's primary concern is never developing at one key position. Flashing as an awesome strong safety in his sophomore year but then impressing as a physical perimeter corner as a junior, he could thrive at either position. But not getting work at one in particular could stifle his potential and force him into a "jack of all trades, master of none" NFL player.
The only thing holding Ramsey back would be a poorly designed plan for his development at the NFL level, something that isn't worth projecting and ideally won't be an issue. But like every prospect, his career path is, at least in some way, is defined by the first team that drafts him. If Ramsey lands in a situation where he can prosper as a cornerback or safety, don't be surprised if he makes an Aqib Talib or Earl Thomas-like impact on a defense.
References
- ^ NFL (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ per Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com (espn.go.com)
- ^ off-field red flags (espn.go.com)
Source → Top 2016 NFL Draft Prospects' Flaws: Major, Minor or Imagined?
