2016 is the year of the running back in college football, so the race for the rushing title will be loaded with top prospects.
But this list isn't an NFL draft ranking or a highlight reel of the most skilled running backs. Instead, the order is based strictly on how many yards we project each player will collect.
Games played is an important factor, too. In 2015, LSU's cancelled outing likely cost Leonard Fournette 200 yards, and most conference champions played two more games.
While Power Five conference superstars are the main attraction, several lesser-known talents made the cut.
Suspension and injury limited Kareem Hunt last year, keeping the Toledo standout from besting his 1,631 yards in 2014. Hunt managed 973 during nine appearances.
Head coach Matt Campbell departed for Iowa State, but the program promoted offensive coordinator Jason Candle. As a result, a run-heavy philosophy will guide the Rockets once again.
Plus, five offensive linemen who started at least six games in 2015 are back. Granted, so is Terry Swanson, who tallied 923 yards while filling in last season.
But when Hunt returned, he assumed the heaviest workload. Thanks to experience up front, Hunt can slide into the top 10.
Perhaps a bit of a bold projection, Mike Warren put together a tremendous year in 2015 after easing into the lineup.
The redshirt freshman managed just 28 yards on nine carries during his first two contests. Then, Warren cracked the starting unit and averaged 131.1 over a 10-game stretch.
Surpassing his 1,339 yard total will be an arduous task, considering Iowa State only has one full-time starter back. However, new head coach Matt Campbell had consistent success running the ball at Toledo.
Barring a few upsets by the Cyclones, Warren will probably only have 12 games to put up numbers.
Matt Breida doesn't handle a tremendous amount of volume, but the Georgia Southern runner sure is efficient.
In each of the last two seasons, Breida notched at least 7.9 yards per carry. After scampering for 1,485 total in 2014, he sprinted to 1,608 last season—scoring 17 rushing touchdowns both years.
The Eagles return their top five rushers, so Breida may again be limited by the talent of his teammates.
With 13 anticipated outings, though, he'll have plenty of chances to show off that efficiency and eclipse 1,600 yards.
Donnel Pumphrey is quietly creeping up the career rushing record list. Through three years at San Diego State, he's amassed 4,272 yards—which ranks 74th in Football Bowl Subdivision history.
Last season, the 5'9" running back piled up 1,653 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. Pumphrey also grabbed 28 passes for 416 yards and three scores.
San Diego State is the favorite to win the West Division in the Mountain West, so he'll likely play 14 games in 2016.
With just 1,031 yards, Pumphrey will rise to a top-10 career mark. Collecting 1,600-plus as expected would be good enough for No. 6.
New Mexico State is not a particularly dangerous team. Larry Rose III, on the other hand, is a terrifying opponent.
The 5'11", 184-pounder paced non-power-conference runners with 137.6 yards per game last season. Unfortunately for him, the Aggies were just 3-9. It probably won't get much better in 2016.
Rose—who registered 1,102 yards two years ago and 1,651 in 2015—will only have 12 opportunities to chase a top-10 finish.
Then again, that's all he needs.
Four starters on Wyoming's offensive line will return to open holes for Brian Hill, who tallied a school-record 1,631 yards last season.
And he should be even better in 2016.
"It's freakishly scary, absolutely," teammate Nick Smith said, per Ryan Holmgren[1] of the Casper Star-Tribune. "You think Brian was a really good player last year, now with 10 pounds of more muscle and more speed, better awareness of the offense, he's just a real threat against any defense."
Perhaps the only thing capable of stopping Hill from contending for the rushing title is the Pokes winning less than six games.
Dalvin Cook handled just two carries against Wake Forest—for a total of 94 yards—and missed Florida State's matchup with Syracuse. That didn't matter.
He still accumulated 1,691 yards for the year, despite the Seminoles offensive line being an inconsistent mess. Cook edged the 1,000-yard mark as a true freshman backup, too.
If FSU can settle the blocking unit and Cook can avoid any major injuries, he's practically a lock for a top-10 spot.
Should the 'Noles defeat Clemson and win the ACC Atlantic Division, however, Cook will rise even higher than No. 4.
At some point, expectations will reach levels Christian McCaffrey simply cannot reach. But Stanford won't shy away from letting the versatile star handle a massive workload.
In addition to 1,070 kick-return and 645 receiving yards, he was one of two players (Derrick Henry, Alabama) to break the 2,000-yard barrier. McCaffrey posted 2,019 in 14 contests.
The Cardinal should enter the 2016 campaign as slight favorites to win the Pac-12 North Division, so another 14-game year is a fair outlook.
That should translate to 300 carries and a ton of yards for McCaffrey.
Oregon's overall success depended on Vernon Adams Jr. being healthy. All Royce Freeman needed to excel was the football.
The 5'11", 230-pound wrecking ball obliterated opponents for 1,836 yards and 17 touchdowns. He rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 out of 13 games, and Freeman's season-low total was a still-respectable 77 yards.
"I don't think Royce has got as much attention as he deserves because of our early-season stumbles, but we can count on him for 100 yards," former offensive coordinator Scott Frost said last year, according to Andrew Greif[2] of the Oregonian.
No matter the length of Oregon's 2016 season—whether 13 without a North Division title or 14 with the crown—Freeman will be among the nation's leading rushers.
Two opponents stopped Fournette in 2015: rain and Alabama.
Nevertheless, he amassed 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground, despite the regular-season opener with McNeese State getting cancelled. Excluding the 19-carry, 31-yard disappointment against the Tide, Fournette averaged a stunning 174.7 during the other 11 games.
LSU needs an improved passing attack to win the SEC, but the offense will ride Fournette as long as possible—just like it should.
He's a generational talent for the program and a leading contender to win the rushing title, especially if the weather cooperates. As for Alabama, well, that's a different story.
Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report College Football Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.[3][4]
References
- ^ Ryan Holmgren (trib.com)
- ^ Andrew Greif (www.oregonlive.com)
- ^ cfbstats.com (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ @Kenyon19_BR (twitter.com)
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