Stock Watch for Golf's Top Stars Ahead of the 2016 US Open.
The season's second major (not to mention a glorious summer of golf) is nearly upon us. Difficult, almost sinister Oakmont Country Club will play host to the U.S. Open for the ninth time and the first since Angel Cabrera's victory in 2007.
And, whaddya know, the Big Three—Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy—lead the list of favorites, with the likes of Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose and Adam Scott following closely behind, per Odds Shark[1].
As both casual and more, well, invested golf fans begin to consider who will raise the trophy at Henry Fownes' Pittsburgh-area track, we'll assess the relative direction of each golfer's stock. Not surprisingly, performance this season, particularly recently, will be the chief determinant of stock direction as well as a rough assessment of whether "brokers" are buying or selling the golfers in question at the PGA Stock Exchange.
Let's take a look at the ticker for the biggest names in golf.
Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR): 20
FedEx Cup Standing: 22
The Year so Far: Phil Mickelson[2], who turns 46 on June 16, has four top-10 finishes in 13 starts this season, including a second-place showing at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in February. He's missed three of his last five cuts, however.
Stock Watch: Stock down. Statistically, Mickelson is doing better in every significant area than last season And the six-time U.S. Open runner-up is running out of chances to capture the nation's championship. Unfortunately, a spate of missed cuts, including a dismal cut-missing effort at the Masters, don't inspire confidence ahead of the second major of the year.
OWGR: 8
FedEx Cup Standing: 2
The Year so Far: Scott won twice in a row earlier this year at the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He hasn't recorded a top-10 finish since, however. More positively: Scott hasn't missed a cut this season.
Stock Watch: Stock up. Entering the 2015-2016 season, the big question pertaining to Adam Scott was: How will he fare with a conventional length putter? While he certainly isn't in danger of leading the tour in strokes gained from putting, he has improved[3] from losing .396 strokes to the field with the flatstick .028 this season. Not bad for a guy who wasn't supposed to be able to survive without his broomstick.
OWGR: 6
FedEx Cup Standing: 13
The Year so Far: Nobody tallies top-10 finishes like Johnson. While he hasn't won this season, DJ has recorded seven top-10 finishes in 12 starts, including a third-place showing at the Memorial in his most recent action.
Stock Watch: Stock down. Forget about the impressive results. And even give DJ a pass for what happened on the 72nd green at Chambers Bay last year, as there's likely no psychic residue. Remember the Masters. Remember the Memorial. Johnson seems to be developing a problem putting when it counts, waving tentatively at the ball in big moments on the weekend and thus, securing top-five finishes and not wins. Needless to say, this won't serve him well on some of the quickest, trickiest greens in the world at Oakmont.
OWGR: 5
FedEx Cup Standing: 21
The Year so Far: For Rickie Fowler, this PGA Tour season is yet to deliver a win. (He did win on the European Tour.) However, the California native has tallied six top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he lost to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff.
Stock Watch: Stock down. Nothing more needs to be said than the mention of the fact that Fowler has missed the cut in three of his last four starts. No way to put a positive spin on that fact. Steek, as he used to be nicknamed, needs to grab a bucket and coach Butch Harmon and start bailing.
OWGR: 4
FedEx Cup Standing: 15
The Year so Far: Bubba Watson won the Northern Trust Open in February, but he hasn't done much recently, failing to notch a top 10 since March.
Stock Watch: Stock down. Watson hasn't cracked the top 25 since the WGC-Cadillac Championship. No need to worry about stats with performances that lackluster. Plus, it's difficult to see Oakmont not getting inside Watson's head.
OWGR: 3
FedEx Cup Standing: 30
The Year so Far: McIlroy has made 10 of 11 cuts on the PGA Tour this season. He's recorded four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, tying for fourth at the Memorial in his most recent effort.
Stock Watch: Stock up. Relative to his stock value a few weeks ago, the win at the Irish Open has to reawaken interest in the Ulsterman ahead of the U.S. Open.
OWGR: 2
FedEx Cup Standing: 3
The Year so Far: Spieth has won twice this season, most recently two starts ago at the Dean & Deluca Invitational. He's tallied top-25 finishes in 10 of his 13 starts.
Stock Watch: Stock down. Relative to the towering expectations the golfing world had for Spieth after his inspired 2015 campaign, this season (particularly recently) can't be seen as building positively on that foundation. I outlined the ways the 22-year-old has been off the mark statistically in this piece[4]. In particular, his iron play, scrambling and putting are down from 2015 levels.
OWGR: 1
FedEx Cup Standing: 1
The Year so Far: It's been a good one, any master of understatement might say. Day has won three times in 11 starts this season, most recently at The Players. He tied for 27th at the Memorial his last time out.
Stock Watch: Stock up. Day had his worst showing of the season at the Memorial, a course that has historically had his number. Still, he's been the best player on tour this season. He leads[5] the tour in total strokes gained.
References
- ^ Odds Shark (www.oddsshark.com)
- ^ Phil Mickelson (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ improved (www.pgatour.com)
- ^ in this piece (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ leads (www.pgatour.com)
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