The Case for Every Top 2016 NBA Free Agent to Change Teams

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The NBA ^[1] free-agency market won't officially open until July 1, so there's still time before matchmakers start pairing off top talents and their big-spending suitors.

But there's no need to wait for our home-wrecking, devil's-advocate purposes here.

These players will eventually ask themselves if they should stay in their current digs or seek out new situations, but I'm not concerned with both sides of the coin. This is about potential departures only and what would make the grass appear greener away from their current homes.

This isn't a prediction that the top 10 members of the 2016 free-agent class will have a new address by the fall or even an argument that they should. But if these players—who've been ranked by their free-agent values (production, age, potential, etc.)—do consider switching jerseys this summer, these will be their motivations for doing so.

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Dwight Howard ^[2]'s decline has clearly begun. As a 30-year-old center without a refined post game or a reliable free-throw stroke, he's done with his days as an All-Star and first option.

But he doesn't need to sit as low on the offensive totem pole as the Houston Rockets placed him this season. He averaged just 8.5 field goals per game, which were his fewest since his rookie year and tied for 122nd ^[3] league-wide among qualified players.

"I felt like my role was being reduced," Howard told ESPN.com's Jackie MacMullan ^[4]. "I went to [Rockets general manager] Daryl [Morey] and said, 'I want to be more involved.' Daryl said, 'No, we don't want you to be.' My response was, 'Why not? Why am I here?'"

That question—combined with the skyrocketing salary cap—should push Howard toward declining his $23.3 million player option ^[5] and hitting the open market.

There are clubs that can make him a much more prominent piece of their offensive plans than Houston has. He is, after all, only a year removed from averaging 19.0 points per 36 minutes ^[6] on 59.3 percent shooting.

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The partnership formed between the Charlotte Hornets and Nicolas Batum proved to be exactly what both parties needed.

The Hornets had their most successful season since relaunching in 2004, while Batum utilized a career-high 21.4 usage percentage ^[7] to post personal bests in points (14.9) and assists (5.8).

So, it's not surprising to hear the 27-year-old swingman say he has "unfinished business" in Charlotte, per Rick Bonnell ^[8] of the Charlotte Observer, and plans to talk to the Hornets before any other suitor.

But there's a reason for Batum to consider pumping his brakes on a return—last year could be as good as it gets for the Hornets' current core. Charlotte has at least three other major rotation players hitting free agency, four if (when, really) Jeremy Lin declines his $2.2 million player option ^[9]. Even with the cap climbing, the Hornets probably don't have enough space to bring everyone back.

Even if they did, retaining this roster wouldn't guarantee a step forward next season. The Hornets need major upgrades to catch the Cleveland Cavaliers, and treading water could equate to falling back if teams around them fortify their own ranks.

If Batum wants his best shot at a title, he should shop himself to the ready-made contenders who miss out on Kevin Durant ^[10].

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With all due respect to the self-proclaimed "Mr. 305," rapper Pitbull, no one is more synonymous with Miami than Dwyane Wade ^[11]. Even the most creative minds struggle to picture him wearing any uniform other than the Miami Heat.

But all of the above were accurate last summer, and Wade's free agency was far from a formality then. A lengthy impasse between the parties included everything from overanalyzed words ^[12] and wardrobe choices ^[13] to a report from the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson ^[14] that Wade was "open to considering other teams."

And all of this was before the Heat had more questions than a college exam. Like, how much is too much for Hassan Whiteside? Will the market even allow anything below the max for the surging 7-footer? If Whiteside stays, which of Miami's other free agents—Luol Deng ^[15], Joe Johnson, Amar'e Stoudemire, Tyler Johnson—would have to go? Are any superstars (aka, Kevin Durant) seriously considering South Beach?

That's before getting into the uncertain future of Chris Bosh ^[16], who's been shut down by blood clots during each of the past two seasons. Or balancing an offensive attack that's woefully short on three-point shooting.

Wade has history with the Heat and a public desire ^[17] to keep that relationship going. But if he's looking for sure things, some would-be suitors have collections Miami is currently unable to match.

7. Al Horford: Avoiding Potential Rebuild

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The Atlanta Hawks have spent the past two years floating between above-average and really good, but they've never found their way to greatness.

Atlanta's last two playoff runs have resulted in humbling sweeps at the hands of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. At some point, the Hawks could ditch their current plans and embrace the reset button.

They reportedly mulled moving Al Horford ^[18], Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver at the trade deadline, sources told ESPN.com's Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst ^[19]. Teague's name just surfaced in more trade chatter, per The Vertical's Shams Charania ^[20]. Horford and fellow starter Kent Bazemore are both entering unrestricted free agency. The 35-year-old Korver has just one season ^[21] left on his deal.

Sweeping changes could be coming soon, and Horford has the opportunity to exit ahead of them. And at 30 years old, time is of the essence. This is probably the last top-dollar contract he'll secure in his career. One would assume he'd rather not spend the duration of that pact with a club transitioning to a new era.

Not when Horford will have more exciting situations available to him. He's reportedly atop the Rockets' free-agency wish list, sources told Sporting News' Sean Deveney ^[22], and he could like the idea of supporting a star like James Harden ^[23]. Or Horford might envision himself as the missing piece for a rising squad like the Boston Celtics.

6. Mike Conley: Joining a Modern Offense

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Mike Conley has tried to ditch his "underrated" tag ^[24], but the label is almost always found a short distance from any mention of his name. And it's not just a media thing. His peers say the same ^[25].

It's used in a complimentary fashion, but there's a backhanded nature to it—even if it's unintentional. The only way for Conley to be underrated is for him to be widely viewed at a level below where his talent says he belongs. Though he's well-regarded for his two-way abilities, he's never been selected as an All-Star.

It's not a market problem. Conley's teammates Marc Gasol ^[26] and Zach Randolph ^[27] have both booked multiple All-Star trips during their Memphis Grizzlies tenure. The league's wealth of point guard talent could be the culprit, but Conley ranked sixth at the position in ESPN.com's real plus-minus ^[28] this past season.

Conley's biggest fault might be failing to flood the traditional stat categories. He's been good for virtually the same numbers over the past four seasons—about 15 points and six assists. He can do better than that, but perhaps not without leading a more efficient, perimeter-oriented offense.

The Grizzlies are severely short on shooters, and that deficiency has kept his stats in check and made the underrated title impossible to shake.

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Bradley Beal is rarely the first player mentioned in Washington Wizards conversations—unless the topic is lower-leg stress reactions.

Beal is a pivotal piece of their puzzle, but not nearly as decorated as his All-Star backcourt mate, John Wall ^[29]. The 22-year-old sharpshooter isn't even the top priority for the Wizards' offseason, as they'll perform an all-out pursuit of District native Kevin Durant before anything else. Taking a backseat to a superstar might not be a slight to every player, but Beal has no qualms saying he sees himself as a centerpiece.

"I want to be valued the right way," Beal told Jorge Castillo ^[30] of the Washington Post in May. "I feel like I'm a max player and that's what I'm looking for. If Washington can't meet that requirement, then I may be thinking elsewhere."

Injury issues and all, Beal is right to feel this way. He's 22 years old and already an offensive star. He's one of seven players ^[31] to have at least 100 triples on 38-plus percent shooting in each of the past three seasons and is a career 21.2-points-per-game scorer in the playoffs.

Those are hardly back-burner credentials and other suitors will make sure he knows that—even if the Wizards can match any offer to the restricted free agent.

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If winning will guide DeMar DeRozan's free-agency adventure, expect a quick return to the Toronto Raptors, once he ditches his $10.2 million player option ^[32].

The Raptors didn't get what they wanted from prized offseason addition DeMarre Carroll and have a boatload of young athletes they're barely using right now, yet they still finished two wins shy of an NBA Finals berth.

The Los Angeles Lakers are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Any excitement surrounding their young nucleus is overshadowed by this grisly statistic—they've set franchise records ^[33] for total losses during each of the last three seasons. And yet, according to some reports, they're still a threat to snag DeRozan, a native of Compton, California, and a University of Southern California product.

"He's made it very, very clear that he wants to be in L.A.," ESPN's Stephen A. Smith said, via Lakers Nation's Ryan Ward ^[34]. "He has family out there. He's from out there. He wants to be in L.A. He wants to wear the purple and gold."

The Lakers have more than enough cap room ^[35] to give DeRozan a max deal, and they're in the market for a franchise face following Kobe Bryant ^[36]'s retirement.

If DeRozan wants to star back home and possibly help return a storied organization to relevance, that's an opportunity he can't find anywhere else.

3. Andre Drummond: Fast-Tracking Ascension

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It was a year of firsts for the Detroit Pistons and Andre Drummond—their first playoff trip since 2009, his first-ever All-Star selection.

With so much young talent filling prominent roles, it's easy to envision this being the start of a successful run for the Motor City and its 6'11", 280-pound mountain in the middle.

"I have no doubt we'll be right back," Drummond said after Detroit's elimination, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell ^[37].

But improvement is rarely linear and never guaranteed. The Pistons could sharpen their strengths and charge forward next season, or their development could stagnate, their weaknesses might worsen and their stock could plummet.

Rather than trying to climb the NBA ladder, Drummond could sign with a club that's already near the top—or, rather, ink an offer sheet the Pistons would inevitably match.

He could use more shooting than Detroit currently has and some more reliable scoring threats around him. Drummond can anchor a good team, but he'd be an absurdly effective second or third option on a great one.

2. LeBron James: Established Championship Culture

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This is the path the Chosen One has chosen. When LeBron James penned his way ^[38] back to Northeast Ohio, he positioned himself to be the Cleveland Cavaliers' championship guide.

His instincts, voice and experience would all be used to mold the team's young talent into an unstoppable postseason force. The plan had to work, since a second exit after his poorly handled first one could irreparably damage his image.

Back-to-back Finals trips make it seem like the strategy is working. But maybe those can be simply attributed to the greatness of James, who's now played in six consecutive championship rounds.

The Cavs dominated the regular season with him (plus-11.0 ^[39] points per 100 possessions) and were atrocious without (minus-5.4 ^[40]). They're much healthier than this time last year and still seem overly dependent on his production.

Would any of this run him out of Cleveland again? It seems doubtful. But he's wondered aloud ^[41] about playing with different teammates. And, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe ^[42] wrote in March, team officials admit James' exit "would be at least a slight possibility if Cleveland flames out."

As easily as the Cavs handled their Eastern Conference foes, James has been on the championship-or-bust grading scale for years.

If he doesn't see a winning recipe in Cleveland, he'd be far more likely to reshuffle the Cavs' roster around him. But if the right deals don't materialize, maybe he'd punch another ticket out of town.

The backlash would be brutal at first, but if the move gets him another ring, perhaps he's willing to take the hit.

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The Oklahoma City Thunder may never have another run like the one they just completed. They needed six games to dispatch the 67-win San Antonio Spurs in the second round of the playoffs, and then grabbed a 3-1 advantage over the record-setting 73-win Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.

Their superstar skill was augmented by their preternatural length and athleticism, creating a formula that seemed destined to produce a long-awaited Finals return.

But ultimately it wasn't enough. Not the 54.4 combined points per game between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook ^[43] throughout the postseason, nor the many breakout efforts from the support staff. Not even outscoring ^[44] the defending champs over those seven games. OKC fell short because three is more than two ^[45], and the standard for success in the West sits impossibly high.

So if you're Durant, why subject yourself to more potential disappointments in the NBA's better half? It's not as if the Dubs and Spurs will be letting off the gas anytime soon (and good luck if the Minnesota Timberwolves' young talent matures).

"For the rest of this decade, any superstar has a better chance of making the Finals in the East," wrote The Ringer's Bill Simmons ^[46]. "The West has Golden State, San Antonio, OKC (for now), the star-crossed Clippers, the savvy Blazers and the precocious T-Wolves lurking like Arya Stark. That's a murderers' row."

Durant's most financially prudent option ^[47] is taking a one-plus-one contract to stay in OKC, which would also allow him to see what Westbrook will do with his own free agency next summer. But if Durant's goal is increasing his odds of making a Finals run, there's no better place than the East.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com ^[48] and NBA.com ^[49].

Follow @ZachBuckleyNBA ^[50]