Now that Novak Djokovic[1] has finally completed his quest for the 2016 French Open[2] title, the Serbian can breathe in the relief that cements him as perhaps the greatest player in tennis history. This was the title he had to win, and he did it. He is the undisputed No. 1 player, and it's not even close.
Critics might charge that the rest of the top 10 is not up to the challenge of dethroning Djokovic, but there are always new players trying to jockey for position to be the next big man in tennis. Which of these players are trending up, and who is struggling to stay in the mix?
Our rankings differ from the official ATP rankings[3] which calculate tournaments points for the past year. Instead, we assign greater weight to the past few weeks, especially the French Open, and we anticipate how the players are expected to compete at Wimbledon and the second half of the season.
Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer met in the fourth round, and it was Berdych who landed in the quarterfinals. As expected, Djokovic promptly drubbed him.
We did not include either player in our pre-tournament rankings, and they performed as expected. Neither player will be a top-10 contender for Wimbledon, and they will need to boost their games if they are to resurface as legitimate contenders at majors.
Nick Kyrgios is still not a top-10-quality player although he will certainly be a top-10 contender on the fast lawns at Wimbledon.
Other veterans who have been languishing just outside the top 10 include talented underachievers Jo-Wilfried Tsonga[4], Marin Cilic[5] and Gael Monfils[6].
This is one of the best periods of Richard Gasquet[7]'s career, and he deserves his status as a top-10 player. The Frenchman knocked off Kyrgios in the third round, Kei Nishikori in the fourth round and took the opening quarterfinal set off Andy Murray before running out of answers.
To illustrate the consistency it takes to be a top-10 player, it's interesting to note his mini-rivalry with Kyrgios. Gasquet lost their famous five-setter at 2014 Wimbledon, but he has otherwise mastered the talented Aussie with a 5-2 head-to-head edge. He's a veteran who has learned to play smarter with his crisp strokes, and someone like Kyrgios has to be scratching his head as to why he cannot solve the more mild-looking Frenchman.
Don't dismiss Gasquet for Wimbledon either. He's a two-time semifinalist there, including last year's run with victories over Stan Wawrinka and Kyrgios.
Milos Raonic is a home run hitter who strikes out a lot. He has picked off some big wins against great players in the past few years behind his booming serve, but he's had a hard time stringing together the kind of tennis to beat the best in the final weekend whether because of injuries or upsets. This time, surprising Spaniard Albert Ramos-Vinolas swept him in straight sets in the fourth round.
Raonic has a few weeks to prepare for Wimbledon grass, a venue that suits his serve and hosted his 2014 journey to the semifinals. This time around, he will certainly have a lot of advice with new coach John McEnroe, one of the legends who will undoubtedly encourage Raonic to polish his approach skills and be more aggressive at net.
Or the McEnroe relationship will be too overbearing and perhaps fizzle out if the big Canadian cannot produce. No pressure there.
David Goffin is not officially in the ATP top-10 yet, but he would have made it had Dominic Thiem not ousted him in the quarterfinals. Goffin nevertheless continues his excellent tennis play from the past few months, showing better results and more potential than some of the players who are listed on the fringe of the top 10
The Belgian is a pleasure to watch if you appreciate consistent strokes, a precise backhand, strategic purposes in moving his opponent on both sides of the court and the genuine professionalism of his hard work and increasing confidence. Is he the next version of Ferrer? Can he go further with a major title one day?
Wimbledon will not be easy because Goffin does not have the firepower for creating quick points. He will need to be lightning quick with his returns and growing feel for the game.
Another solid clay-court season nevertheless ended in disappointment. Nishikori lost his two-time Barcelona crown to Rafael Nadal. Djokovic defeated him in both the Madrid and Rome semifinals, the latter a gut-wrenching loss in the third-set tiebreaker.
Losing in the French Open fourth round to Gasquet was the anticlimax.
He'll be ranked a slot higher in the ATP Rankings, but Nishikori will have a harder time contending at Wimbledon. Then comes the grinding summer through the Olympics and hard courts in North America. Will he stay healthy and have enough to bid for the U.S. Open title the way he did in 2014?
It's going to be tough, and he's a notch or two below the best players.
The big mover in our rankings is the Austrian, Thiem, who is now the highest-ranked player born in the 1990s. (Raonic had briefly checked in at No. 4 last year.) He moves up eight spots to No. 7 in the ATP rankings after driving to the semifinals.
The worst anyone can say about Thiem is that he's firmly established himself as one of the top five players on clay. Or that he was the best of Adidas' zebra fashion.
Thiem missed a chance to duel French Open legend Nadal in the fourth round when the Spaniard withdrew because of injury two rounds earlier. But he did take care of solid opponents and got through another top-10 aspirant with his quarterfinal victory over Goffin.
Then he ran into the A-version of Djokovic and got a firsthand lesson of what it will take for him to be worthy of winning a major. Thiem has the firepower, but he looked overwhelmed by Djokovic's defense, which put so much pressure on his serve and total game.
All in all, an impressive statement from Thiem, who hopes he can summon up improved comfort on grass and perform better than his career 2-6 record on that surface. He has a big enough serve and great athleticism with his returns, so maybe he can get to the second week at Wimbledon.
Maybe Nadal would have defeated Thiem, Goffin, Djokovic and Murray to win the 2016 French Open, but it was not going to happen with an injured wrist. It's also not likely that the Spaniard suddenly gets better and builds on the clay-court form that saw him win Monte Carlo and Barcelona, even if he does play Wimbledon, which is questionable, according to guesses from media sites like Sky Sports[8].
Too often since 2012 we've seen Nadal flop at Wimbledon and miss extended time for the remainder of the year. He could be absent for the foreseeable future, meaning that Nadal might not be a top-five player for too much longer. An injured player is rarely a successful player even if we are talking about Nadal.
Or we could see Nadal come back in time to make a surprising semifinal appearance at Wimbledon and compete for the U.S. Open title. That's the glass-is-half-full optimism that is increasingly more difficult now that he just celebrated his 30th birthday on June 3.
It's tempting to move rising Thiem past Wawrinka, but for now, the Austrian must defer to the Swiss' proven resume. Wawrinka did not exactly light up the tennis world this spring, but he managed to get back to the French Open semifinals before going down to Murray.
Wawrinka is the hot-or-cold superstar, a veteran who can be steady or wobbly but who has made the most of his late career in winning some big matches.
Wimbledon grass is his weakest surface, but he arrived in the quarterfinals last year before losing an epic five-setter to Gasquet. He wasn't going to beat Djokovic anyway.
Maybe he will have a good summer in Brazil or New York. He has a good chance to move right past the injured Nadal for the ATP No. 4 ranking, and then who knows? Maybe he goes on another fantastic run at the U.S. Open for another surprising title.
It feels like Roger Federer[9] has already retired, so seldom has he appeared in 2016. The 17-time major winner missed the French Open, and he continues to hope he can peak for Wimbledon, the Olympics and the U.S. Open.
The Swiss Maestro can quickly find his form, but he will need some matches to tune up for Wimbledon. He also is fortunate to hold the No. 3 ranking, though he is now far behind Murray and not even in the same galaxy with Djokovic's point total, but nobody else is either.
It's been four years since Federer last won a major, and Wimbledon figures to be his best shot once again. There's only Djokovic, Murray and a couple of big bombers like Raonic and Kyrgios who could seemingly give him trouble if he is healthy and rolling.
Tennis[10] fans would like nothing more than to see the Swiss have a renaissance. At age 34, he's still too young to retire.
Imagine getting to 10 major finals but facing Federer in three of those and Djokovic in the other seven. Wouldn't anyone other than Nadal be content to take two of those championships? The media will continue to point out Murray's failures in major finals, but the Scot has made a case for being one of the most resilient players in history. Losing majors will not deter him from competing harder for the next one.
Other than the Herculean task of having to get through Djokovic, Murray is the clear No. 2 in the world. He's healthier than Federer and Nadal, and he has greater defense and consistency than players like Wawrinka and Thiem.
Murray will also be one of the top contenders at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. If he stays healthy and keeps on grinding with greater aggressiveness, he could get that elusive third major. One thing he will look back on was his overly conservative stubbornness to keep attacking Djokovic's backhand. He got locked into predictable patterns, while Djokovic amped up the velocity when needed.
Look for what Murray will do in finding a new coach. He could use someone to help his offensive game and counter Djokovic before some of the young guns make bids of their own for major titles.
Djokovic is not going to let down after winning the French Open. If he has lapped his competition, he is aware of what it means to chase history. He's long craved the praise that has been heaped on rivals Federer and Nadal, and so he's going to keep earning historical respect one major at a time.
There's nothing to ignore about winning five of the last six majors and holding all four of them at once for the "Djoker Slam." He's the first man since 1992 (Jim Courier) to win the first two majors in a calendar year, and he will be favored at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open barring an injury or inexplicable decline.
He's also over 8,000 points ahead of Andy Murray in the rankings with nearly 17,000 points. Or it's like adding together Federer, Nadal and Wawrinka. Or it's like the point total for five-and-a-half clones of Thiem.
In the past year, King Novak reigns as supreme as the Lord of the Majors.
Four Major trophies for the Serbian King Novak to lift into the sky,
Five Masters 1000 titles and one World Tour Final to hold,
One King to rule them all, One King to find them,
One King to take them all and in the big match bind them.
References
- ^ Novak Djokovic (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ French Open (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ official ATP rankings (www.atpworldtour.com)
- ^ Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Marin Cilic (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Gael Monfils (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Richard Gasquet (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Sky Sports (www.skysports.com)
- ^ Roger Federer (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Tennis (bleacherreport.com)
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