Maybe you've heard: The NBA[1] salary cap is going up[2] (again), and that means extra cash in the coffers for this summer's free agents.
We're living in a strange time where bit players are going to field huge offers, and rotation staples will face multiple invitations to take max money.
It's a good time to hit the market.
Here, we'll run down the most sought-after free-agent options while noting their status—restricted, unrestricted, player option—and predicting where they'll wind up. Many of the biggest names will stay right where they are, but with all that cash floating around and middling teams desperate to take a high-priced flier on young talent, rest assured we'll see some changes of address.
We can kill the drama on a handful of this year's free-agent class' most prominent members.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James can opt out of his contract this summer, and though his 2015-16 season featured a few subtle digs at his teammates and perhaps some latent dissatisfaction, it's still difficult to imagine him leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers. He's too invested, too pot-committed after making his return about so much more than basketball[3].
Dwyane Wade[4], Miami Heat
Dwyane Wade is an unrestricted free agent who has built up so much goodwill and so much credit with the Miami Heat mafia (they take care of their own down there) that an exit feels impossible. Depending on what happens with some of Miami's other free agents, Wade could recoup some of the losses he incurred by opting out and taking a mild pay cut on his last deal.
Team president Pat Riley always finds ways to compete, Miami is a great place to live and Wade is on his way to becoming the most iconic Heat lifer in franchise history. He's staying.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili may or may not return for another season. But if they do, they'll be in San Antonio Spurs uniforms. Little-known fact: The universe collapses if they play for another team.
Dirk Nowitzki[5], Dallas Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki will opt out of the final year of his current deal, and it sounds like he'll sacrifice some salary on his next one to help the Mavs make the most of his final years, per comments he made to 1310 The Ticket in Dallas, via Tim MacMahon[6] of ESPN.com:
We had one more year on the contract, but I think this is the right thing to do. We're going to sit with Mark [Cuban] and Donnie [Nelson] obviously over the next few weeks and figure out how to improve this franchise again. ... So this is just one move that hopefully starts a chain reaction for us to get better again, to compete really at a high level. We'll see how it goes.
Dirk's not going anywhere.
FA Type: Restricted
Harrison Barnes will be 24 years old on May 30, so it's getting to the point where his breakout—if one were ever coming—would have happened by now. That'll dissuade the Golden State Warriors, who've seen his development stall up close over the past year, from matching the max offers he'll likely receive.
Remember, the Dubs pushed a four-year, $64 million pact across the table last offseason, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski[7]. Barnes rejected it and proceeded to take a clear step back from his previous productivity. He shot worse from long range, continued to operate mechanically with the ball and did nothing to prove he was more than a beneficiary of wide-open opportunities created by the Warriors' system and stars.
Golden State surely won't up its offer after seeing all that.
That said, Barnes is a strong, athletic wing who has successfully guarded power forwards (and even centers). Combined with his high character and solid three-point stroke, he'll easily command max offers.
The Los Angeles Lakers have needs all over the place, but a versatile, athletic wing might be among their biggest. Even if we assume the Lakers tab Brandon Ingram with the No. 2 overall pick, Barnes still makes sense. He's always been most effective at the 4, so he could start over Ingram, play alongside Julius Randle and occupy either forward spot depending on matchups.
With current Warriors assistant Luke Walton taking over as head coach next season, perhaps Barnes will find familiarity appealing.
And the money. Don't forget the money.
FA Type: Player Option
Two significant knee surgeries before age 28 make Chandler Parsons a wildly risky proposition, but he's a talented scorer who handles the ball well for his size and has also been effective as a perimeter threat.
Assuming he opts out of his deal, Parsons' likeliest landing spot is the one he's already in. Dallas could pursue Harrison Barnes, Nicolas Batum or even Luol Deng[8] to fill the void, but all three will command huge dollars. And none of them are as potentially valuable as free-agent recruiters.
Parsons is good pals with Dwight Howard[9], whom (spoiler) we should expect the Mavs to target this summer. So, because Parsons figures to play a role in luring[10] Howard, it behooves the Mavericks to keep him happy and under a lucrative contract.
FA Type: Unrestricted
CSN California's James Ham[11] reported the Sacramento Kings had "cooled" on the idea of bringing Rajon Rondo back, and ESPN.com's Zach Lowe[12] said management would "cut bait...if the bidding for him gets beyond a certain threshold that is lower than we might imagine."
Translation: The Kings aren't going to pay Rondo more than the $9.5 million he collected last year, and there's good reason to think one of the other 29 NBA teams will.
Rondo, then, would seem to be a goner.
Where he winds up is a tougher issue. He's 30, hasn't defended since tearing his ACL in Boston and plays an offensive style that pads his assist total but doesn't lead to great overall efficiency. Sacramento produced 103.3 points[13] per 100 possessions with Rondo on the floor last year, but managed 103.2 when he sat. Paired with a decisively negative defensive impact, Rondo's numbers don't justify much money.
Whoever signs him for significant cash will either be bold or desperate or outright crazy.
So...the New York Knicks it is!
FA Type: Unrestricted
It's not always smart to value a current asset based on what it cost to get him in the past.
Still, it took Noah Vonleh and Gerald Henderson to get Nicolas Batum last offseason. So there's probably some part of the front office that feels like it has to make that outlay count by retaining Batum. Otherwise, he was just a rental who netted a mere first-round playoff elimination.
Fortunately, Batum performed at the highest level of his career last season. A good facilitator and ball-handler who also dramatically improved his off-the-catch shooting from deep, the rangy Batum pairs beautifully with shoot-first point guard Kemba Walker.
"When I came here they let me know they wanted me to be one of the [top] two options with Kemba," Batum told Rick Bonnell[14] of the Charlotte Observer. "I liked that. I like that they trusted me. It was a pretty cool year. First time I got to play like I want to in eight years in the NBA."
A good fit who wants to stick around? It shouldn't be difficult for the Hornets to stomach a potential maximum salary.
FA Type: Unrestricted
The Heat have to devote all their assets and attention to retaining Hassan Whiteside, the guy Pat Riley is already talking up as the focus of his team's offseason. "He's obviously, I think, our No. 1 priority," Riley said, per AJ Neuharth-Keusch[15] of USA Today. "Period. You don't have to look further than that. While there might be players out there in free agency, our No. 1 priority is Hassan Whiteside."
Because the Heat can only use cap space to re-sign Whiteside, some of their other free agents will take a back seat in negotiations. Every penny will count, and Miami can't tie up cash in other deals until it figures out what to do with its big man.
Deng, who came into his own as a small-ball power forward late in the year, will be among the back-burnered.
Which means other teams will get first crack at impressing him with an offer.
There's still a good chance Deng winds up back in Miami if the Whiteside deal falls through. But it's also intriguing to imagine him bolstering the Houston Rockets, who'll likely lose restricted free agents Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, while also watching Dwight Howard walk.
Deng would be a nice fit as an undersized 4 who could space the floor in Houston, and his professionalism would be sorely needed there.
FA Type: Player Option
This almost feels too easy.
Pau Gasol[16], who can decline the option on his current deal with the Chicago Bulls, will almost surely play elsewhere next year—both because of the Bulls' rough season and the chance to lock in one more multiyear pact.
Unlike most of the players chronicled so far, the signals are pretty clear as to where that deal will come from.
Gasol told Spanish newspaper Marca[17] (via CBSSports.com[18]'s James Herbert) the Spurs would be "an interesting option for me." And then his brother, Marc, jumped on board[19], too, per John Martin of 92.9 ESPN.
Gasol will be 36 when the 2016-17 season begins, and San Antonio has a track record of getting the most out of aging, somewhat limited players. Whether Duncan retires or not, there's a fit here; Gasol could play center alongside LaMarcus Aldridge[20] or spell him off the bench at the 4. And with strong perimeter defense, his weaknesses as an interior stopper wouldn't show up as starkly as they did in Chicago.
San Antonio's a good spot for one last run.
FA Type: Player Option
Bismack Biyombo's postseason breakout came at a great time for him and, in the short term at least, his Toronto Raptors. Unfortunately, his rebound-hogging, shot-smothering interior activity puts the Raps in a tricky big-picture spot.
Per Ryan Wolstat[21] of the Toronto Sun, via NBA.com's Hangtime Blog[22]:
With big raises kicking in for Valanciunas and Terrence Ross, and counting a $15.15 million cap hold for DeMar DeRozan before he signs a potential max deal, the Raptors will only have about $5-7 million to offer Biyombo. On the open market, he'll likely get somewhere between $10-15 million. They don't own the Bird Rights on Biyombo that would allow them to exceed the cap to re-sign him.
Forget the raise attached to Jonas Valanciunas' new contract; his mere presence makes Biyombo a tough guy to keep. You can't pay for a second center—even if he might bring distinctive value—if you've already spent on a 24-year-old who can score and just keeps getting better.
It's tough to know where Biyombo will wind up, but interior defense and energy are two commodities that'll surely command a high price—one the Raps can't pay.
We're copping out and tabbing Biyombo's landing spot as "Not Toronto."
FA Type: Restricted
Don't make too much of the Washington Wizards not offering Bradley Beal, who'll turn 23 in June, a max extension last summer. And don't read too far into Beal turning down the smaller deal Washington did offer.
The Wizards wanted to preserve space by keeping Beal's cap hold low. That way, they could pursue targets from other teams first—like Kevin Durant[23]. So even if they planned to spend huge on Beal all along, 2015 wasn't the time to do it.
That time is now.
Persistent stress fractures make Beal a real risk, particularly if it takes the full five-year max to retain him. That's a lot of years and a lot of money for a guy who played just 55 games last season and has yet to shake the injury-prone label. Still, he's a career 39.7 percent shooter from deep whose total game continues to develop.
There are worse ways to spend roughly $23 million per year.
Beal wants a max deal, which he told Jorge Castillo[24] of the Washington Post explicitly. Assuming the Wizards don't land Durant (a safe bet), retaining Beal will become their top priority.
He's staying, and it'll cost Washington big.
FA Type: Player Option
The hometown angle gets dramatically overblown[25] in free agency, and if DeMar DeRozan were to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers after opting out with the Raptors, he'd also be in the way of the D'Angelo Russell-Jordan Clarkson backcourt of the future.
Plus, L.A. would probably be better off targeting someone who could help in the frontcourt and on defense. We'll address that shortly.
So, if not the Lakers, where?
Sure, it's boring to predict yet another stay-home free agent. But the Raptors have watched DeRozan pull out of a postseason tailspin and contribute in a major way—and that's after posting a career-best season. Though he stops the ball and doesn't shoot threes, DeRozan has shown enough to convince Toronto he's worth a massive investment.
All bets are off if the Lakers don't secure the guy who should be their main target, though. Speaking of which...
FA Type: Unrestricted
If the Heat pony up all the dough they can, there's little reason for Hassan Whiteside to go anywhere else.
Miami can pay him more overall because its partial Bird Rights allow for 7.5 percent annual raises on a four-year max deal, whereas other teams can only offer 4.5 percent. Depending on where the official cap figure falls, Whiteside's max deal in Miami could be worth an extra $4 million over anything another team could offer—and that's without considering Florida's lack of a state income tax, per Barry Jackson[26] of the Miami Herald.
The potential snag: The Heat may not view Whiteside as a max guy.
"The Heat values him, but someone who has spoken to the team's front office said he believes the Heat will try to convince him to take something less than the max deal he almost assuredly could get elsewhere," Jackson said.
This is where the Lakers should swoop in, telling Whiteside he deserves to play on a team that values him, that there's no better place to be a star than L.A.
Maybe the Lakers will chase Harrison Barnes and DeMar DeRozan, but Whiteside makes more sense than either of those two. A team that can't defend the rim and has an enormous hole on the front line needs a player with Whiteside's skills.
If the Heat really do come up short on the cash portion of the bargain, the Lakers can and should capitalize.
FA Type: Player Option
Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher[27] hears a return to the Orlando Magic is possible, which would make for remarkable theater. Still, that seems likelier than Howard returning to the Houston Rockets after such a disappointing season.
Consider this a bet he stays in Texas but joins the Dallas Mavericks, who could free up money when Dirk Nowitzki tweaks his deal. Plus, the Mavs always pursue the biggest names.
It's probably a couple of years late for Howard to count as a superstar acquisition, but the Mavericks have swung and missed on their top targets so many times that they'll probably settle for D12 in the decline phase of his career.
It's become riskier than ever to expect a rejuvenation/maturation/rebirth from Howard, mainly because he proclaims that's exactly what he's planning on every time his relationship goes bad with his employer. But there's still something to like about Howard flanking Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, Wesley Matthews and whomever Dallas slots in at point guard.
FA Type: Restricted
The Detroit Pistons promised Andre Drummond a max offer last summer on the condition he wait to sign it until this year (so as to preserve cap space for other pursuits). This wasn't a wink-wink deal; it was explicit, per Brian Windhorst[28] of ESPN.com.
There's no realistic scenario in which the Pistons decide not to pile max cash on Drummond's doorstep. He's the cornerstone of head coach Stan Van Gundy's defense and the central figure of the first playoff team Detroit has had in years. That he didn't ink the extension last offseason is purely a timing play.
The Pistons will seek out other free-agent talent first while Drummond's cap hold is relatively low and then hit the big man with a deal worth about $120 million over five years.
"No hesitation," Pistons owner Tom Gores told ESPN.com's Nick Friedell[29] when asked about a maximum contract. "Come on, look at all the big guys in the league. Come on."
Drummond is a 22-year-old All-Star who had a dozen more double-doubles than the second-place player on that list this past season. He's getting maxed. By Detroit.
We're done here.
FA Type: Unrestricted
Dwight Howard out. Al Horford[30] in.
According to Sean Deveney of Sporting News: "A person familiar with the organization told Sporting News that landing Hawks star Al Horford is the Rockets' top-line goal in free agency."[31]
Horford is everything Howard isn't: a true professional with multiple offensive skills, a reliable jumper, keen passing intellect and the ability to excel on offense away from the basket. It's hard to imagine a center who would open up the middle of the floor for James Harden[32] more effectively than Horford.
We've already got the Rockets pursuing Luol Deng, and even with Howard's salary coming off the books, there won't be endless cash to spend. But if Horford decides to leave an Atlanta Hawks team that seems to be stagnating, he could find a perfect home in Houston.
And if he's interested, the Rockets should cut off all other negotiations until they sew up their max-salaried center spot.
FA Type: Unrestricted
Who knows if it'll happen, but we should all be rooting for Mike Conley to wind up with the Spurs.
According to Marc Stein[33] of ESPN.com, San Antonio's interested in making that a reality.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili might have to be gone, and Tony Parker would probably become a trade candidate, but Conley deserves this. He fought through injuries in nearly every year of his Memphis Grizzlies tenure, never complained, always defended and succeeded in running an offense that adhered to some seriously outdated principles.
He's held the unofficial "best player nobody knows is a star" title for something like a half-decade.
With the Grizzlies clearly reaching the end of their run, Conley has earned the right to escape. If he joins LaMarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard and possibly Pau Gasol in San Antonio, the Spurs could transition out of the Duncan era seamlessly.
FA Type: Unrestricted
Maybe Durant belonged on that first "staying at home" slide, since it seems likelier than ever he'll remain with the Oklahoma City Thunder on his next deal. But we've been speculating about his destination for months now, so it's only fair he get the individual treatment.
Here's what's changed that makes an exit so incomprehensible: KD's team just smoked the Spurs, who were a theoretical competitor in the hypothetical bidding war for his services. Why would he sign on with a squad he just demolished?
Golden State, another possible suitor, can hardly claim to offer him a better chance to win either. The version of Oklahoma City that emerged in these playoffs sure looks like the best team in the league. And if Durant were to depart, he'd have to ignore the reality that OKC now offers him at least as good of a chance at rings as anywhere else.
Russell Westbrook[34] is at his peak, Steven Adams is 22 and keeps getting better, Billy Donovan is flashing coaching chops that look elite...the list goes on.
The thinking behind a Durant exit always depended on the possibility of him growing frustrated with Oklahoma City underachieving.
That possibility is gone.
References
- ^ NBA (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ going up (www.usatoday.com)
- ^ more than basketball (www.si.com)
- ^ Dwyane Wade (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Dirk Nowitzki (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Tim MacMahon (espn.go.com)
- ^ The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski (sports.yahoo.com)
- ^ Luol Deng (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Dwight Howard (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ play a role in luring (sportsday.dallasnews.com)
- ^ James Ham (www.csnbayarea.com)
- ^ Zach Lowe (espn.go.com)
- ^ 103.3 points (stats.nba.com)
- ^ Rick Bonnell (www.charlotteobserver.com)
- ^ AJ Neuharth-Keusch (www.usatoday.com)
- ^ Pau Gasol (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Marca (www.marca.com)
- ^ CBSSports.com (www.cbssports.com)
- ^ jumped on board (twitter.com)
- ^ LaMarcus Aldridge (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Ryan Wolstat (www.torontosun.com )
- ^ NBA.com's Hangtime Blog (hangtime.blogs.nba.com)
- ^ Kevin Durant (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Jorge Castillo (www.washingtonpost.com)
- ^ overblown (www.lakersnation.com)
- ^ Barry Jackson (miamiherald.typepad.com)
- ^ Ric Bucher (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Brian Windhorst (espn.go.com)
- ^ Nick Friedell (espn.go.com)
- ^ Al Horford (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Sean Deveney (www.sportingnews.com)
- ^ James Harden (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Marc Stein (twitter.com)
- ^ Russell Westbrook (bleacherreport.com)
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