If you're an avid fan of NBA[1] free agents being handed large sums of cash, then the 2016 offseason is most definitely for you. Nearly all 30 team will have an excess of financial wiggle room thanks to the impending salary-cap eruption, exponentially increasing the value of the contracts that get doled out. And we're going to help burn through that extra money. Soon-to-be free agents earned top-50 status primarily due to their performances this season. Their ceilings down the line, health, age, relationship to Stephen Curry[2], etc. were also all taken under advisement. Those with non-guaranteed deals for 2016-17 were excluded from the rankings. The provided stats will focus solely on the regular season and seek to contextualize one or more aspects of a player's market value. We are not necessarily advocating in favor of huge paydays. These are just a series of data dives that seek to put a positive spin, however specific, on every top free agent's earning potential. Non-Guaranteed Deals Boris Diaw, San Antonio Spurs: Should be safe—unless Kevin Durant[3] falls in love with San Antonio's weather. Ersan Ilyasova, Orlando Magic: Will he get more than the $8.4 million he's due if Orlando cuts him loose? Jonas Jerebko, Boston Celtics: Worth the $5 million owed for his shooting alone. Amir Johnson, Boston Celtics: Boston may keep his $12 million hit as trade bait. Or just because the pick-and-roll synergy between him and Isaiah Thomas is real. Joffrey Lauvergne, Denver Nuggets: No way Denver cuts the cord. Shaun Livingston, Golden State Warriors: Should be safe—unless Kevin Durant falls in love with Oakland/San Francisco. Just Missed the Cut Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers (unrestricted): The most likable undeserving Sixth Man of the Year ever. Arron Afflalo, New York Knicks (player option): Still a premier shooting guard[4] between the ears. Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (unrestricted): Hasn't been healthy since 2009. Jeff Green, Los Angeles Clippers (unrestricted): Don't worry. Someone is going to overpay him. Jordan Hill, Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): Per-36-minute superhero[5]. Brandon Jennings[6], Orlando Magic (unrestricted): The pre-Cleveland J.R. Smith of point guards on the wrong end of an Achilles injury. Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers (unrestricted): Is it possible to be too old before turning 30? Ish Smith, Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted): Be innately skeptical of any Sixers point guards. Lance Stephenson, Memphis Grizzlies (team option): Definitely a top-50 free agent on Indiana's big board. Deron Williams[7], Dallas Mavericks (player option): How is he still only 31? Age: 25 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $947,276 Small sample sizes can be lucrative. Just ask Seth Curry halfway through July. Although the Sacramento Kings didn't turn him loose until mid-March, his sweet shooting spanned the entire season. He drilled a redonkulous 45 percent of his triples while jacking up 2.5 per appearance and more than 100 total. Brother-from-another-mothership Stephen Curry and J.J. Redick are the only two players[8] who matched that efficiency-to-volume ratio. So, the kid can flat-out shoot. Throw in Seth's familial ties, and it's pretty clear there will be plenty of teams outside Sacramento ready to handsomely reward his small-sample excellence. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $1,035,000 Progressively tinier small-ball lineups haven't totally replaced the NBA's admiration for skyscrapers who can stroke threes. There will be a ton of contracts handed out that prove as much over the summer. Jon Leuer will be the recipient of one such deal. This season marked the first time during his five-year career that he logged more than 1,000 total minutes, and his modest numbers came on a sorry Phoenix Suns squad. But he put down more than 38 percent of threes and finished with tantalizing per-36-minute splits. To wit: Leuer is the first player since Kevin Love in 2010-11 to average 16 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes while shooting 38 percent from distance on at least 100 attempts. Don't be surprised if and when he gets 2015-16 Ryan Anderson money.[9] Age: 28 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $1,636,842 Lance Thomas has always seemed like a solid three-and-D player—minus the "three" part. In 2015-16, however, he found his outside stroke, burying more than 40 percent of his deep balls. This is the first time he has ever thrown up 25 three-pointers during a single season, so there's cause for skepticism. But there's nothing artificial about his impact on the New York Knicks' performance, as Daniel Popper[10] wrote for the New York Daily News: The forward out of Duke re-signed with the Knicks this past summer on a one-year deal, and after working meticulously on his jump shot all offseason, he returned as an important piece on both ends of the floor through the first half of the season. But Thomas sprained his knee on Jan. 18, and his season unraveled. Coincidentally, so did the Knicks'. This is no coincidence. Thomas owns the best net rating[11] of any Knicks teammate to appear in at least 20 games. And while helping your squad get outscored by 0.1 points per 100 possessions isn't anything to gush over, it is enough for low-seeded playoff contention—proof that Thomas can elevate a good basketball team. Age: 28 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $1,100,602 Wesley Johnson's three-point marksmanship is still a crapshoot—he has vacillated between above-average and below-average long-range shooting his entire career. So his value as a three-and-D wing will forever be in doubt. That's not ideal, but it won't torpedo his leverage at the negotiating tables. He has the perimeter defense aspect of this whole NBA thing down. Shifting between shooting guard, small forward and power forward, Johnson posted a steal on 2.7 percent of all possessions he defended and sent back 2.6 percent of every two-point attempt he faced. The one other non-center[12] to do the same this season? Paul Millsap. Age: 31 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $13,500,000 Post-up maestro Al Jefferson[13] is trying to keep pace with an NBA that's threatening to pass him by. He rebounds, passes and blocks the occasional shot, in addition to showcasing fancy footwork with his back to the basket and when facing up opponents. But that's not enough nowadays. Bigs who won't contend for Defensive Player of the Year awards must space the floor to some degree if they plan on surviving. Baby jumpers between 10 and 16 feet don't count. Not anymore. Jefferson, then, would appear to be fighting a losing battle—if it wasn't for the fact he wrapped up a season in which he swished a career-best 51.4 percent[14] of his looks between 16 feet and just inside the three-point line. And given his not-insignificant volume from that distance, Jefferson has ensured prospective suitors won't be scared off by an inability to survive the Association's fast-evolving offensive styles. Age: 30 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $5,500,000 Mirza Teletovic isn't going to give you much defense at the power forward or center spots. He won't scrap and claw his way toward an inordinate number of rebounds. He isn't a guy who will score with silly efficiency off the dribble or create shot opportunities for his teammates. And at 30, he's incredibly old to have only four years of experience. What does he offer? Frontcourt spacing, and a whole lot of it, even by today's standards for someone his size. Since entering the league, Teletovic has twice drained at least 125 triples while shooting 39 percent from beyond the arc. Just one other player[15] checking in at 6'9" or taller has matched that output more than once during this time. His name is Kevin Durant. Teams desperate for catch-and-shoot snipers up front can, and will, line up accordingly. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $845,059 Langston Galloway, like his teammate Lance Thomas, belongs on a quality basketball team. He is pure hustle and affects the game as a steadying force, regardless of how he's used. On the ball or off, as a shooter or a playmaker—it doesn't matter. His combination of driving, spot-up shooting, playmaking and diligence just works in a way that suggests he's ready for a bigger role. Two players this season[16] recorded usage and assist rates north of 15 with a sub-nine percent turnover rate. All-Star Al Horford[17] is one of them. Soon-to-be handsomely paid Langston Galloway is the other. Age: 35 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $1,499,187 Picture this: You're chugging along, marveling at David West[18]'s years of stellar production with the Indiana Pacers. Next thing you know, he essentially lights more than $10 million on fire so he can join the San Antonio Spurs. Shortly after that, it hits you: David West is old. He will turn 36 in August. There is no way he leaves San Antonio, even if he opts out of his bargain-bin contract. He will spend the rest of his career chasing championship rings with the Spurs. Because he's old. Still, West will have suitors ready to pay him real NBA money should he decide to test the open market. He has 13 seasons of wear and tear on his body but remains a first-rate defensive bulldog. His regular-season defensive box plus-minus (DBPM)—measurement of how much better the average defense is per 100 possessions with a given player in the game—ranked third[19] on the Spurs, who deploy one of the best[20] points-prevention units ever. Not that you should be particularly shocked. This is the fourth straight year West has maintained a DBPM of at least 2.4, which is noteworthy because only one player[21] has done the same: Tim "Can you believe I've never won a Defensive Player of the Year award?" Duncan. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,489,530 Injuries, inconsistent shooting, topsy-turvy defensive sets and a Houston Rockets-worst net rating[22] will prevent Terrence Jones from hiring a fleet of armored trucks to carry his restricted free-agency earnings. But he is still young, and his ceiling as a stretchy 5 will ensure he doesn't suffer incurable checking account envy. Here is the list of every NBA player[23] to amass at least 1,800 points, 1,000 rebounds, 215 blocks and 70 three-point makes while notching an effective field-goal percentage—cumulative measurement of two-point and three-point efficiency—better than 53 through their first four seasons: It looks like Jones should rent one or two armored trucks after all. Age: 23 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,894,059 Remember that one time, in July 2015, when the Orlando Magic traded Maurice Harkless to the Portland Trail Blazers for a heavily protected 2020 second-round pick they probably won't ever see? So do the Magic, and so will the restricted free agent's wallet. Harkless hasn't transformed into a superstar since arriving in Portland, his shooting percentages outside the restricted area[24] are awful and he doesn't facilitate nearly enough for a ball-dominant wing. But his limitations aren't keeping him from breaking bread with esteemed company. Four other qualified non-centers[25] since Harkless entered the league have averaged 17 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and one block per 100 possessions at least once before their 23rd birthday. All of them are All-Stars or prospects with All-Star ceilings: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Aaron Gordon, Kawhi Leonard and John Wall[26]. Age: 38 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $2,814,000 Manu Ginobili won't get two-syllable paid in free agency. If he opts out of his contract with the Spurs and eschews retirement, it will be so he can sign an even cheaper deal that aids San Antonio's expected pursuit[27] of Kevin Durant. And yes, that should scare you. Also scary, albeit for different reasons, is Ginobili's individual performance. Six qualified players[28] in NBA history have cleared 17 points, 5.5 assists, two steals and 39 percent shooting from deep per 36 minutes. A 38-year-old Ginobili is the only one to join this club after his 30th birthday. Whatever he takes to stay with the Spurs this summer, assuming he doesn't bolt for indefinite rest and relaxation, won't be enough. He'll deserve more. Age: 30 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $5,675,000 Courtney Lee has typified the three-and-D soldier since before players with his skill set started being overpaid. And he remains among the most relevant of these specialists today. Dancing with 30th-birthday demons hasn't cost him a step. He is still the same reliable shooter and slightly overrated defender. He finished the 2015-16 regular season hitting 37.8 percent from downtown, with a steal rate of 1.9 and block percentage of 1.1—numbers matched or exceeded by just three other players[29] who logged a minimum of 2,000 minutes: Patrick Beverley, Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard. Now it's his turn to be overpaid. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $5,138,430 Dion Waiters is learning to play well with others. Not that he has a choice. Competing for touches with Kyrie Irving[30] on the Cleveland Cavaliers is one thing; sustaining your ball-dominant style beside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook[31] is an impossible thing. Hence why Waiters is now a viable off-ball threat. He canned over 35 percent of his threes during the regular season for the second time in his career and torched twine on more than 38 percent[32] of his catch-and-shoot three-balls. Neither of those marks are career highs, but Waiters' spot-up precision specifically comes amid a substantial role change: Life is easier when complementing two of the five best players in the world. But with Waiters acting as a dependable standstill three-point assassin on more than one-quarter of his looks, he's finally proving that he needn't be the focal point to thrive—a progression that's sure to pique the interest of teams other than Oklahoma City. Age: 31 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $13,400,000 Stashing Joakim Noah[35] this low hurts in the worst way. He is a mere two seasons removed from carrying the Chicago Bulls in Derrick Rose's absence, (as a fringe MVP candidate, no less), and the stick-to-itiveness with which he plays is second to none. Noah is also on the wrong end of 30, unnervingly injury-prone and unlikely to ever be a trustworthy scoring threat outside 10 feet[36] of the basket. As is the case with so many other centers, the NBA is threatening to leave him behind. He may already be in its rear view. If anyone can successfully march against this evolution, though, it's Noah. What he lacks in offensive range, he makes up for in defensive grit and know-how. And then there's his unselfishness. He isn't just one of the best passing bigs in the game; he's one of the most accomplished oversized playmakers in league history. Three centers[37], in addition to Noah, have ever registered an assist percentage better than 20 through three or more seasons. Bake in some defensive context, and the club gets more exclusive. Bill Walton and Noah are the only 5s[38] to pair that assist rate with a block percentage higher than three on more than one occasion. Age: 25 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,288,205 How many teams will trip over themselves to shell out long-term money for a 25-year-old big man with back problems severe enough to void a completed trade[39]? More than any of us are comfortable admitting. Donatas Motiejunas has logged 1,000 total minutes just once through four seasons. And like fellow Rockets restricted free agent, Terrence Jones, his status as a spacey 5 remains predicated on a wildly unpredictable three-point acumen. Yet during the lone season where he cracked 65 appearances (2014-15), Motiejunas ambled his way into exclusive company. He remains one of two 7-footers[40] under the age of 25 to surpass 2,000 minutes and 10 three-point attempts while sustaining averages of 15 points, two assists and 35 percent shooting from three-point land per 36 ticks. Indeed, that's a mouthful. But it's one that places Motiejunas alongside Dirk Nowitzki[41] and him alone, so we'll allow it. Age: 32 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $5,200,000 Zaza Pachulia's market worth is difficult to quantify. He is a willing defender and decent rim protector but doesn't block many shots. He shoots from beyond 16 feet but should probably stop. He deftly slides off screens but is a below-board pick-and-roll finisher[42] and, at best, an average closer around the iron. Some team will award Pachulia large stacks of cash anyway, even if it's not the perpetually center-obsessed Dallas Mavericks. He is like an aspiring Joakim Noah, only healthier, with a more polished all-around offensive game and snazzier individual stat lines. On that note: Entering 2015-16, just six players[43] topped 2,000 total minutes since 1990 and also eclipsed 11.5 points, 12.5 rebounds and two assists per 36 minutes with a player efficiency better than 16. Pachulia is now the seventh, joining Charles Barkley, DeMarcus Cousins[44], Kevin Garnett[45], Kevin Love, Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Willis. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $2,139,000 Jeremy Lin is more valuable now than during the aptly named "Linsanity" era. His numbers aren't as gaudy, his place in Internet infamy not nearly as prominent. And that's fine. Lin's stock no longer needs that statistical or perceptual validation—not after spearheading a Charlotte Hornets second unit that finished in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to HoopsStats.com[46]. Playing a super deep point guard position will, of course, curtail his market value. There aren't many starter's vacancies around the league, and his three-point touch remains suboptimal. But there is always a need for driving-loaded floor generals who can score and defer, in volume, off the bounce. To that end, Lin is one of three attackers[47] to close 2015-16 by scoring on at least 58 percent and passing on at least 35 percent of his drives while staging 300 or more of those downhill assaults. His statistical siblings: Kawhi Leonard and Chris Paul[48]. Age: 25 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $1,147,276 Any general managers planning to invest in Matthew Dellavedova's future must first ask themselves this: Does he work outside Cleveland, where most of his shots go uncontested and his defensive stands are mythologized because he traditionally tries harder than Kyrie Irving? There are no certifiably correct answers to this question. There is just Dellavedova's performance with the Cavaliers—and the knowledge that Stephen Curry and Tony Parker are the sole players[49] to rival both his 2015-16 assist rate (26.2) and three-point percentage (41). Even if this statistical quandry doesn't last beyond Dellavedova's comfy gig in Cleveland, it's attractive enough for a bunch of teams to try poaching him on the off chance it might. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $3,075,880 Meyers Leonard's stock has cooled after exploding toward the tail end of 2014-15. His outside shooting percentages cratered to start the 2015-16 crusade, and season-ending shoulder surgery ruined any chance of him living up to the premature hype. But he still proved to be a serviceable stretch 5 before collecting dust on the Portland Trail Blazers' shelf. Leonard's three-point success rate improved every month[50], eventually settling in at a still impressive 37.7 percent. It's his defense that triggers concern. He isn't quick enough to hang with playmaking power forwards and doesn't hold his own[51] in the paint against post-up brutes. Standing at 7'1", though, Leonard's upside as a rim protector is there—developing and imperfect, but there. He held opponents to under 43 percent shooting[52] at the iron in 2014-15, and his 2015-16 mark[53] (52.5), while measurably worse, puts him in the same tier as Joakim Noah, Zaza Pachulia and Mason Plumlee. And he's the youngest of that small caste. Outside-shooting bigs who protect the house are the new basketball dream. Leonard has the chops to make that vision a reality. Age: 23 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $2,814,000 Trust me when I say you are not prepared for how much Bismack Biyombo will be paid in free agency. None of us are. "I wouldn't be surprised if a team looked at Biyombo and offered near max for two years," Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus[54] wrote on Twitter. "Contract length [is] the key—big dollars but short years." Short-term max deal? Bismack Biyombo? Really? Biyombo falls into the division of bigs who cannot nuke nylon outside the restricted area; he shot 30 percent[55] inside the paint during the regular season. But he is a devastating pick-and-roll finisher, undeterred rebounder and overall small-burst statistical monster. Exhibit A: Hassan Whiteside is the only other player[56] this year to collect nine points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 ticks through 1,000-plus minutes of total spin. Cue the footage of Biyombo smirking all the way to the bank. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $1,200,000 Boban Marjanovic has barely 500 NBA minutes on his treads. He is a lumbering 7'3" tower trying to find a niche in the pace-and-space era. And he is only a household name because Vine exists. Ranking him this high still isn't a mistake. The mistake would be assuming he won't amount to anything beyond his viral highlight-built reputation. "People look at his size and think he's a big stiff," David West told Bleacher Report's Mike Monroe[57]. "But Boban's a hell of a player. He gave us a big boost, just his [basketball] IQ and his size. He's not a big stiff. He can move and stays engaged in terms of the pace of the game. He's a positive for us." Never mind that Marjanovic ended the regular season shooting over 57 percent[58] from just inside the three-point arc, suggesting, even in limited action, he can stretch defenses at his position. And forget that he will be a 28-year-old sophomore, inherently shortening his prime. His garbage-time dominance is unimaginable enough to transcend his lack of experience and guarantee a high-end payday. Can you name the last rookie to match Marjanovic's playing time and per-36-minute benchmarks of 21.0 points, 13.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks? Clearly, you can't. He doesn't exist[59]. Age: 30 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $5,000,000 J.R. Smith is still J.R. Smith, only less so, and in a good way. Ill-advised long twos continue to permeate his shot chart, but these blips are few and far between. He is best suited as a catch-and-shoot gunner and, finally, he knows it. Suiting up with LeBron James will have that effect, and potential suitors should project Smith's peak outside Cleveland with extreme caution. But he converted a system-friendly 42.6 percent[60] of his standalone threes during the regular season. And he ranked third[61] in p oints per spot-up possession among those with 250 or more touches, trailing only Allen Crabbe(!) and Kawhi Leonard. Smith's hot shooting is translating into the playoffs as well. Of every player to use at least 25 spot-up possessions[62], not a single one is averaging more points per touch. Such off-action flame-throwing, even if situational, assures Smith will do now what he couldn't last summer: create a market for his services away from James' safety net. Age: 29 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $4,000,000 Ian Mahinmi's 2015-16 salary will pale in comparison to his 2016-17 earnings—unless, of course, the NBA runs out of use for underrated paint-policers who can anchor a top-end defense. Which it won't. According to NBAMath.com[63], Mahinmi ranked 10th among all centers in total defensive points saved this season with 120.62, significantly outperforming more celebrated defenders like Andre Drummond (84.48), Dwight Howard[64] (83.45) and Karl-Anthony Towns (62.5). With his 30th birthday in November, Mahinmi doesn't present the same risk-reward benefits of, say, Bismack Biyombo. And his next deal will reflect as much. But centers who, like him, can shape a top-three defense[65] will never struggle to find lucrative work. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $947,276 Question: Will Allen Crabbe net an average annual salary of $10 million or more in his next contract? Answer: most definitely maybe. Few up-and-coming three-and-D specialists are as, well, special. Crabbe is statistically one of the best spot-up shooters[66] and defenders[67] in the league, while a willingness to pass and ability to limit turnovers makes him an intriguing fit for any team. Kawhi Leonard, in fact, is the only other player[68] to simultaneously tally Crabbe's 2015-16 assist (7.2), steal (1.5), turnover (8.1) and three-point (39.3) percentages. Thus, we need a revised answer to the previous question: Crabbe will most definitely grab $10 million per year in restricted free agency. Age: 24 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,269,260 Jared Sullinger has yet to prove he can be a frontcourt floor-spacer, but that won't stop him from landing a huge deal over the summer. Conditioning issues are beginning to dissipate after he functioned at a high level for the speedy Boston Celtics. And his lack of size, at 6'9", isn't giving way to an undefined role. He moonlights as a power forward but now spends most of his time[69] at center. That he continues to launch threes, despite glaring inefficiency, even helps his stock. Defenses are forced to weight the trade-off of leaving him alone against the open lanes created by pulling a body outside the paint to guard him. As long as he keeps shooting, it incites a defensive dilemma that, by default, offers an offensive boost. Plus, there's always the chance Sullinger's shooting improves, further adding to what is already a versatile resume. He has topped 2,800 points, 1,900 rebounds, 450 assists, 170 steals and 125 made threes through his first four years, a milestone he shares with four active players[70], all of them stars: Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki. Age: 30 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $9,500,000 Fans of teams with a point guard vacancy beware: Giving Rajon Rondo a raise without tossing him into a starting five that comprises three Allen Crabbes and a Draymond Green isn't an enviable idea. Sure, he has the individual numbers to warrant further review. But that additional research doesn't reveal many silver linings. Though Rondo put a career-high 36.5 percent of his three-point attempts through the net in Sacramento, the offense's production didn't change[71] with him on the floor. And having little to no positive impact on the offense shouldn't get you paid as a point guard—especially when you're a defensive minus. About those individual numbers, though: They are patently absurd. Rondo is the second player in NBA history to clear 11 points, 11 assists and six rebounds per game while shooting 35 percent from deep.[72] One (sup, Indiana?) or two (ahoy, Sacramento?) teams will surely buy stock in a player who now has statistical ties to Magic Johnson. We just can't be sure that's a good thing. Age: 40 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $6,000,000 Rest assured, a part of me is currently dying inside. It's difficult to reconcile plugging Tim Duncan at No. 24 after putting him inside the top seven[73] just a few months ago. Alas, Father Time is cruel and undefeated, and Duncan is finally looking his age. As SB Nation's Tom Ziller[74] aptly wrote: Duncan's scoring numbers fell off a cliff this season. He struggles to get open looks consistently and defers heavily to Leonard, Tony Parker and others. He's averaging fewer than five points per game this postseason. On offense, LaMarcus Aldridge has made Duncan nearly irrelevant. Duncan's own age has made him less effective on the boards (one defensive rebound in 10 chances on Tuesday, per NBA.com) and, to a certain extent, defense. The mind is there, but the body is not. He's no longer quick off of his feet and his lateral movement is slowing.[75] Punching Duncan's retirement ticket is stupid. We should know better than to assume anything about his career by now. He could walk away, opt into the last year of his contract or negotiate a cheaper deal with the Spurs that seals Kevin Durant's arrival. Heck, Duncan could decide to finally chase that paper, leave San Antonio and sign with another team for obscene amounts of money. Some general manager will gladly pay him to play defense. After all, according to NBAMath.com[76], he still finished seventh in total points saved during the regular season, even as his offensive game and lateral movements betrayed him. Age: 31 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16: $10,151,612 Erratic three-point shooting has hampered Deng's value as a small forward in recent years. The Miami Heat, as a result, predominantly slot him at power forward, which creates mismatches that don't demand long-range excellence. But the increasing popularity of undersized lineups allows that experiment to be pushed even further. Deng is no longer just a power forward. At 6'9", he is a small-ball forward-center. Close to 20 percent[77] of his playoff minutes with Miami are spent at the 5. He is at a disadvantage against seasoned back-to-the-basket bigs, but he can stay with most other small-ball 5s and enjoys a spike in three-point efficiency (47.1 percent) by displacing centers from their defensive comfort zones. Expect Deng's abbreviated experience at the 5 to drum up his offseason appeal, if only because multiposition wings like him, with the physical tools to play up two spots, can survive the Draymond Green-ification of the NBA. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $3,425,510 Every team with more than $20 million in cap space would offer Evan Turner a max contract if he could hit threes with average frequency. Shoot, if he could be counted on to make even 30 percent of his triples, max deals would find him. Wings like Turner are that scarce. He defends just about every position, rebounds at a respectable clip and acts as a pseudo-point guard on offense, breaking down defenses and setting up teammates with incisive drives. Balancing all those responsibilities at a high level isn't easy. That's why only two players[78] equaled or exceeded Turner's regular-season rebound (9.3), assist (23.9), steal (1.7) and block (1.0) percentages: Draymond Green and LeBron James. Turner should probably add a trusty three-point shot to his arsenal, huh? Age: 28 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $8,500,000 Combine the career trajectories and volumes of Jon Leuer and Mirza Teletovic, and you get Ryan Anderson. His sales pitch to teams is simple, yet effective: He's the second-most established stretch big in the game—a tried and true floor-spacer who borders on automatic from different area codes. Anderson has splashed in 50-plus three-point looks on better than 36 percent shooting seven times for his career, including 2015-16. Dirk Nowitzki is the only active big (6'10" or taller) with more such seasons[79] to his name. And he's Dirk freaking Nowitzki. Don't underestimate the amount of money Anderson's long-lived sharpshooting nabs him. It will, in all likelihood, be two to three times more than the Mavericks are paying his buddy Dirk. Age: 29 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $7,000,000 Pay no attention to Marvin Williams' postseason implosion. Crummy shooting is a symptom of playing too much small forward and doesn't diminish his regular-season accomplishments. Williams helped mold Charlotte's new identity, providing extensive minutes as a combination rim protector and frontcourt spacer, a dual role that facilitated staggering individual output. Make that historical individual output. Just three other players[80] have ever compiled as many points (948), rebounds (521), blocks (77) and made three-pointers (152) as Williams did this season: Kevin Durant, Paul Pierce[81] and Rasheed Wallace—all future Hall of Famers. Age: 26 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,008,748 Are you ready for Festus Ezeli to rake in, on average, more than $15 million per year? Of course you aren't. But you better get ready. As the Sporting News' Sean Deveney[82] relayed: Three years and $50 million? According to several league executives, that is likely to be what it takes to land Warriors restricted free agent center Festus Ezeli this summer. "Obviously there are health issues you're worried about," one general manager told Sporting News. "So I don't think you'd want to go beyond three years. But he still has a lot of upside and he can get better in a bigger role." Ezeli has appeared in just 46 games over each of the last two seasons and doesn't enjoy regular burn for a Golden State Warriors squad that employs Andrew Bogut and likes to run Draymond Green at center. But he makes the most of his minutes, flashing better touch around the basket, a more refined defensive game and statistical splits that may end up justifying that payday. Exactly 350 players[83] have seen 1,200 minutes or more of total floor time since 2014-15. Two of them are averaging[84] at least 14 points, 11 rebounds and 2.5 per 36 minutes: Ezeli and Hassan Whiteside. Age: 23 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $845,059 Jordan Clarkson is about to cost the Los Angeles Lakers or another team a lot of money. Feast your eyes on every player[85] to match Clarkson's total points (1,928), rebounds (504), assists (398), three-pointers (149) and effective field-goal percentage (48.2) through his first two go-rounds: All of Clarkson's numbers are presented with the caveat that he has played for the two worst teams in Lakers history. He could end up being just another situation-specific stat-stuffer. The caveat to that caveat? Statistically syncing up with Curry, Lillard and the pre-collapse version of Mayo is pretty darn awesome no matter the situation. Age: 23 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,288,205 Evan Fournier's future with the Magic is drowning in uncertainty at the most fundamental levels. The team flipped a 23-year-old Tobias Harris at the trade deadline for what amounts to cap space and has another wing in top-five prospect Mario Hezonja to groom moving forward. There are, in turn, no assurances Orlando can retain Fournier, not even with general manager Rob Hennigan speaking to the contrary, per the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins[87]: "One of our biggest, if not our biggest, priorit[ies] is to make sure Evan stays with us, and we're confident we'll be able to do that." Hennigan might, out of necessity, start singing a different tune when he finds out the cost of re-signing Orlando's fast-rising offensive stud. Three players, aside from Fournier, closed out the season averaging 17 points and three assists per 36 minutes while draining 40 percent[88] of their deep balls: two-time MVP Stephen Curry, Most Improved Player C.J. McCollum and 2014-15 All-Star Jeff Teague. It's possible, if not inevitable, that Fournier lands a pact similar to the four-year, $64 million deal the Magic gave to Harris last summer. Age: 26 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $2,000,000 League executives told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe[89] back in January that Kent Bazemore may get up to $12 million per year on his next contract. And let's face it, in the new salary-cap climate, he might command even more. Cap-rich teams searching for a mixture of shooting, passing and perimeter defense won't do much better than the Atlanta Hawks' DeMarre Carroll fill-in. He offers solutions in each of those areas and has the statistical clout to prove it. Ten players, including Bazemore, concluded the regular season[90] collecting at least 15 points, three assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes while shooting 35 percent or from distance. Minus Bazemore, this group reads like a who's who of superstars and fringe stars: Stephen Curry, Paul George[91], James Harden[92], Kyle Lowry, Khris Middleton, Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, Kemba Walker and John Wall. Not one of these other nine names, however, tallied a better DBPM than Bazemore. So, yeah, we might as well face it: Bazemore is probably getting more than $12 million per year. Age: 23 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $3,873,398 Harrison Barnes has not made a fourth-year leap. His shooting percentages have actually dipped, and Golden State is still waiting for him to post even an average PER[93]. Concerning? Maybe. Enough to remove Barnes from max-contract consideration this offseason? Not even close. Thirty-two players, Barnes included, wrapped up 2015-16[94] clearing 13 points and two assists per 36 minutes while also shooting 38 percent from three. And Barnes registered the lowest usage rate of the bunch (15.9). Mike Scott—Mike Scott—used a greater share of his team's possessions (17.4) when in the game, for crying out loud. This low-usage role is no doubt a byproduct of playing as a No. 4 option to Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. And that sells. Possible suitors will see Barnes' splits as a complementary weapon, not to mention his importance to Golden State's small-ball "Death Squad," and roll the dice on his potential as a featured contributor. This is not to imply he'll leave the Warriors. They can match any offers he receives, giving them final say on the matter. Put another way, the Warriors get to decide whether it's them or another team that funds Barnes' max deal. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $15,361,500 Chandler Parsons erupted just in time this season to guarantee his entry into max-contract debates. Prior to being ruled out for the rest of this year with a torn meniscus in his right knee, Parsons staged a 30-game tear[95], during which he averaged 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals on 52 percent shooting overall and 47.5 percent from beyond the arc. While knee issues could compromise his already shaky defensive integrity at the small forward slot, he is a prime candidate for full-time 4 duty. Even with the influx of mobile bigs, Parsons, at 6'9", is a frontcourt anomaly. He corrals long rebounds like a normal stretch 4, but his blend of shooting and playmaking is usually reserved for guards. Take this sentiment literally, because Stephen Curry is the only other player[96] this season who combined an assist rate of 16 and 40 percent showing from deep with a rebounding clip of eight. Age: 30 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $22,359,364 Dwight Howard is bearing too much blame for Houston's disastrous 2015-16 campaign. He's culpable in the team's demise, make no mistake, but he is by no means wholly responsible. The Rockets didn't do enough to get him involved offensively... which led to the second-lowest usage rate[97] of his career... which subsequently left Howard open to criticism for uninspiring production... which now gives him plenty of ammunition in free-agency meetings. Correct, offensive miscues are Howard's primary selling point, since it's not like his defensive reputation needs rescuing. The Rockets played stingier[98] with him on the floor, and he joined Anthony Davis and Paul Millsap as the only players[99] to average one steal and 1.5 blocks per game. Houston's inability to use Howard properly on offense deserves all the attention. He saw more than three times as many post-up possessions (297[100]) compared to roll-man touches (91). If he gets teams to think about what he can do as a volume slasher within pick-and-rolls, then he'll have no problem sussing out one last, long-term contract. Age: 37 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $8,333,334 When Dirk Nowitzki opts out of his current contract, he won't want for hypothetical admirers. If he feels like it, he can scour the market and start a bidding war. That's the luxury players who are 37 going on 27 have at their disposal. Yes, Nowitzki has more than 53,000 regular-season and playoff minutes on his legs. But after putting a bow on his 15th season of averaging 17 points and shooting 35-plus percent from downtown, he officially supplants Tim Duncan as the NBA's foremost authority on eluding Father Time. Less than 10 other players[101] in league history have maintained Nowitzki's per-game lines at age 37. He continues to build upon his legacy during should-be twilight years, even as the Mavericks routinely flame out in the first round of the playoffs. Might those early postseason exits be enough for him to author a bidding war and consider leaving Dallas? "We had one more year on the contract, but I think this is the right thing to do," Nowitzki said of opting out, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon[102]. "We're going to sit with [owner] Mark [Cuban] and [general manager] Donnie [Nelson] obviously over the next few weeks and figure out how to improve this franchise again." I guess not. Age: 35 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $7,448,760 Talk of high-profile free agents accepting pay cuts to play for championship contenders is exhaustive, overrated and generally irrelevant. But yeah, pushing 36, Pau Gasol[103] will most likely take less to chase a title. Fear not for his financial security, worry warts. He has now earned more than $170 million[104] off NBA contracts alone. He will be just fine. Besides, any discount Gasol accepts will be out of personal preference, not market necessity. He may be 280, give or take a decade, in basketball years, but he's working off one of the best individual seasons for someone with his "life experience". Until now, a 31-year-old Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was the oldest player[105] to average 16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocks for an entire season. Then again, until now, he was also one of only five players to ever reach those per-game touchstones, period. And that means Gasol, at the spry age of 35, put forth one of the best season-long efforts in NBA history, life experience be damned. Age: 22 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $5,694,674 Bradley Beal has not morphed into the superstar running mate the Washington Wizards need for John Wall. But he's as close as it gets without actually being there—on offense, anyway. Beal can initiate sets as a distributor or strike off the catch. He has cut down on his mid-range jumpers and increased his drives. And he remains one of the most deadly three-point triggermen...ever. Through four seasons, while battling injuries, Beal has dropped in 440 three-pointers on a 39.7 percent outside clip. Only seven other players[106] before him have done the same. Adjust the company to account for his point (3,949) and assist (736) totals, and Beal keeps two peers[107]: Stephen Curry and the thought-to-be-superstar version of Ben Gordon. Consider this your latest reminder that Beal's market value is already set. If the Wizards, against all logic, don't give him a max deal, another team will. Age: 26 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $10,150,000 Playoff DeMar DeRozan is doing his darnedest to sabotage regular-season DeMar DeRozan. But his free-agency momentum cannot be ruined by sub-40 percent shooting on the league's biggest stage. DeRozan has expanded his offensive repertoire as much as someone can without developing a reputable three-point touch. He drives, dishes and reaches the free-throw line on command. There are even times when he looks like a half-competent outside shooter; his 33.8 percent conversion rate from behind the arc during the regular season is a career high. Many of DeRozan's shots are still unnecessarily difficult. More than 70 percent[108] of his regular-season attempts came as contested looks, and he's still entirely too reliant on mid-range jumpers. But that's part of his charm. He is an unfinished product yielding superstar returns. He cleared 23 points per game, recorded an assist rate better than 20 and posted a true shooting percentage—measurement of two-point, three-point and free-throw efficiency—of 55 this season alone. And if he's joining the exclusive ranks[109] of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Paul George, James Harden, LeBron James, Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook as is, imagine what he could do with an updated shot selection and average three-point stroke. Age: 34 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $20,000,000 Dwyane Wade[110] is a virtual lock to accept a below-market deal this summer that allows Heat president Pat Riley to work his usual free-agent voodoo. But in the unlikely event that Wade decides to measure his worth in dollar signs, Miami will have to oblige. The elder version of Flash is just that good. The Heat offense still fares better[111] with him on the court all these years later. And though the defense tends to suffer when he plays, there's a healthy market for graying guards who light up passing lanes and get up for the occasional block. Wade is now the oldest player[112] in league history to maintain his most recent assist (27.4), steal (1.8) and block (1.4) percentages for an entire season. LeBron James held the previous record, as the sole player over 30 to hit those numbers. Knowing this, there is no feasible scenario in which the Heat overpay Wade. Whatever he gets, he'll have earned every penny. Age: 28 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $9,388,426 Meet Mike Conley, the mayor of Conservative Star Powerville. Population: him. Everything about Conley is atypical of your textbook superstar. He has never piloted a top-10 offense during his time with the Memphis Grizzlies. He has no All-Star or All-NBA selections under his belt. His career usage rate (20.5) doesn't even rank in the top 75[113] among active guards. He is more game manager than offensive CEO. And that's OK. Conley protects the ball, distributes as much as the Grizzlies' offensive model will allow and pumps in points with understated volume. That's his modus operandi, and it works—so much so that Memphis' clunky offense scored like the top-10[114] attack he's never officially led with him directing the show prior to an Achilles injury: Stick Conley on another roster, alongside shooters, with absolute freedom to drive, and he'll soar up the league's point guard pecking order. Keep that in mind this summer if you lose sight of why he'll have his pick of multiple max-contract bids. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $13,125,306 Like Mike Conley, Nicolas Batum has no All-Star or All-NBA credentials. His most distinct honor since entering the league is the one Player of the Week award he snagged this past November. And just like Conley, this dearth of concrete individual honors won't stop the max-deal pitches from rolling in during free agency. Batum is a do-everything talent—a point forward who shoots, scores, drops dimes, jumps into passing lanes and uses his length to swat the more-than-occasional shot. He won't be a plus on defense every night, and his outside shooting is a statistical roller coaster, but the box score will always feel his presence—especially when he's repping Charlotte. Only two other players[115] have ever paired Batum's 2015-16 assist (26.9), steal (1.3) and block (1.4) percentages with his total three-point makes (139): James Harden and Tracy McGrady. You are now free to sound the max-contract alarm as loud as humanly possible. Age: 22 Free-Agency Status: Restricted 2015-16 Salary: $3,272,091 Andre Drummond is everything you want in a big man who can't shoot free throws...or space the floor...or score with his back to the basket. In other words, he's a rebound-wrangling, steal-forcing, shot-swatting machine. Drummond's per-36-minute numbers are normally reserved for NBA 2K MyPLAYER creations—or for real, live humans who don't actually play. He is the first player[116] to collect 15 rebounds, one steal and two blocks per 36 minutes while appearing in more than 11 total games through the first four seasons of his career. Should he ever shoot, say, 50 percent from the charity stripe, his world takeover of the NBA's anti-spacing division will be complete. Age: 26 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $981,348 Hassan Whiteside has played his way into the max-contract bubble. Rebounds, blocks, demoralizing dunks, pick-and-roll domination and diabolical smirks have all helped get him here. But it's the impact his play now has on the Heat's performance that stands the best chance of convincing suitors, Miami included, that he's worth a max deal: Bigs who aren't hoisting threes or tossing out assists have to serve as the anchor for an exceptional defense. And Whiteside has shown he can do just that, all while hitting point, rebound and block benchmarks the NBA hasn't seen[118] since Hakeem Olajuwon. Age: 29 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $12,000,000 Fact: Al Horford is one of the most versatile players in today's NBA. Few bigs able to strike his offensive and defensive balance. He shoots threes, puts the ball on the floor and scores in the post. He flings passes, blocks shots and switches onto wings and guards without getting blitzed off the dribble. Horford displayed this full range of skills for all of 2015-16, capping his max-contract case with an airtight seal. And now he is one of five players[119] to tally at least 1,000 points, 250 assists, 100 blocks and 80 made threes in a single season, joining the ranks of Lamar Odom (2000-01), Dwyane Wade (2008-09), Kevin Durant (2012-13) and Draymond Green (2015-16). Subsequent fact: Al Horford is one of the most versatile players ever. Age: 31 Free-Agency Status: Player option 2015-16 Salary: $22,970,500 LeBron James is an MVP talent. Stephen Curry didn't leave anyone else a chance this year, and some of James' mystique has faded with age and a declining jump shot. But he is still an MVP talent. Cavaliers general manager David Griffin described it best on The Jim Rome Show, per SI.com's Kenny Ducey[120]. Pressed about who is more valuable between Curry and James, he sided with Cleveland's savior, provided "we're really talking about who's carrying" his team and the NBA in general. And he's only partially wrong. Golden State's point differential per 100 possessions plunges by a greater margin without Curry than Cleveland's does without James. But it's the Cavaliers who are worse overall without their cornerstone: There is no criteria outlining MVP candidacy. It's open to interpretation. And no matter how you define it, James remains among those most deserving of it. Age: 27 Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted 2015-16 Salary: $20,158,622 Kevin Durant's ridiculous efficiency is oftentimes lost in his equally ridiculous per-game numbers. Even when we're paying homage to his annual dalliances with a 50/40/90 shooting slash, we're somehow selling him short. Following his 2015-16 showcase, Durant has now twice recorded a true shooting percentage of 60 and assist percentage of 20 after registering a usage rate above 30. Once is difficult enough. Twice is absurd. And that's fitting, since the only two players[123] to ever combine Durant's efficiency and volume more than once traffic almost exclusively in the absurd. Their names? LeBron James and Michael Jordan. Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com[125] unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders[126].< small>[124] Dan Favale covers the NBA[127] for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.[128]
Waiters... Spot-Up 3P% %FGA Spot-Up 3s Total Spot-Up 3PAs 2013-14[33] 41.6 17.5 173 2014-15[34] 30.4 19.7 184 2015-16 38.2 25.2 178 
Grizzlies... Off. Rtg. Rank With Conley 105.1 9 Without Conley 100.6 27 
Heat Since Jan. 1[117] Off. Rtg. Rank Def. Rtg. Rank Net Rtg. Rank With Whiteside 104.9 10 100.9 4 4.0 8 Without Whiteside 105.1 9 104.8 18 0.3 15 
Net Rtg. With Net Rtg. Without Difference CLE (LeBron)[121] 11.0 -5.4 -16.4 GSW (Curry)[122] 18.3 -3.7 -22.0 
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