The Associated Press has been conducting a weekly college football poll since the 1930s, tapping into the opinions of sportswriters across the country to assess who are the best teams in the game. This poll used to determine who would play for the national title each year, though the creation of the BCS, as well as the current playoff system, has rendered it mostly obsolete. Mostly. The AP Top 25 remains incredibly relevant in college football as a conversation piece, something to spark debate, and nowhere is this more prevalent than with its annual preseason poll. A few weeks before the 2016 season begins, the AP will release its initial rankings, which will essentially be a mass of educated guesses. Each of the 61 voters will submit their preseason top 25 based on a combination of what happened in 2015 and what they expect will occur this season. There's no set criteria they use, though sportswriter Phil Steele[1] has noticed some commonalities that seem to go into making these choices: Using these observations as a guide, we've made our own prediction as to how the preseason AP Top 25 will look. These are not Bleacher Report's own rankings—the latest of which were published on April 26[2] and will be updated again during the preseason—but rather our guess at how the AP voters will rank them. Last year, we correctly picked[3] 23 of 25 teams, eight in their exact spots, including each of the top five schools. Boise State Broncos (Not ranked in final 2015-16 AP poll) Before Houston came along and stole its thunder, Boise State was the darling of the mid-major ranks. The Broncos should again be in contention for the "Group of Five" bid to a major bowl game thanks to 13 returning starters, most notably quarterback Brett Rypien, running back Jeremy McNichols and receiver Thomas Sperbeck. Florida Gators (25th) The surprise SEC East Division champions in 2015, Florida finished with blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan, and then lost a number of players to the NFL draft. Jim McElwain's job in his second season might be harder than the first, thanks to increased expectations, but if he finds the right quarterback, then goals will be easier to reach. Northwestern Wildcats (Not ranked) Northwestern had the distinction of winning 10 of 13 games but only outscoring its opponents by 12 points last season, the product of a sluggish offense and some blowout defeats. That includes the Wildcats' final game, against Tennessee in the Outback Bowl, a result that will linger when preseason voting occurs. UCLA Bruins (Not ranked) UCLA was a preseason Top 15 team in both 2014 and 2015, but some costly losses kept it from being able to win the Pac-12 South Division. The Bruins are mostly starting over on offense, but because of the return of sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen, they'll still get some early votes. Wisconsin Badgers (21st) A model of consistency with an average of 10 wins the past seven seasons, Wisconsin routinely finds itself in the preseason rankings as well as the final poll. This time around, the Badgers will start on the outside until they can show something on the field, possibly in their opener against LSU in Green Bay. Texas Longhorns (Not ranked) There are also a few voters who like to take a flier and get out ahead of a team set for a breakthrough season. Texas needs success in 2016 to keep Charlie Strong's plan intact, and despite plenty of questions on offense, the Longhorns will pop up on a few preseason ballots but not enough to start off with a ranking. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 14 Trying to accurately predict the team that will grab the last spot in the AP preseason poll is tantamount to guessing how many jelly beans can fit into a water cooler. Last year's No. 25 team, Tennessee, had 114 votes yet appeared on[4] only 29 of 61 ballots. Translation: Picking this one is the same as taking a wild stab in the dark, so why not go with a team led by college football's most eccentric coach? Mike Leach won nine games with Washington State last year, fueled by the top passing offense in FBS. Expect nothing different with Luke Falk back to throw the ball to a long list of receivers. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 15 Mark Richt[6]'s 145 wins in 15 seasons wasn't good enough for Georgia, and Miami wasted little time jumping at the chance to grab such a successful coach (who happens to also be an alum). His arrival, combined with one of the best quarterbacks in the country, has the Hurricanes hoping their time in the spotlight is coming up soon. Brad Kaaya has been starting since the first game of his true freshman season, and his experience could make Miami the team to beat in the ACC's Coastal Division. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 15 Washington was the least experienced[7] team in FBS entering the 2015 season, according to Phil Steele, and that was before it decided to go all-in on true freshmen at quarterback (Jake Browning) and running back (Myles Gaskin). Naturally, that youth struggled early before coming on strong at the end of the year, and the momentum will carry over into just the Huskies' second preseason ranking[8] since 2004. Browning and Gaskin make for one of the best young offensive duos in the country, but Washington is also loaded on defense with a blend of youth and experience. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 15th Returning starters: 14 North Carolina broke through in 2015 with an 11-game in-season winning streak, claiming the ACC's Coastal Division title and then taking Clemson to the limit in the conference final. We'll just chalk up that disastrous defensive performance against Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl to being emotionally drained after the ACC championship. AP voters will likely do the same, though this far down in the poll, the Tar Heels figure to be among a handful of teams who get ranked despite not appearing in all the ballots. Those who don't pick them will be skeptical about replacing school career total offense leader Marquise Williams, while those who do will buy into the belief that veteran backup Mitch Trubisky could be even better. Both factions will take into account the improvements UNC made on defense last year under coordinator Gene Chizik, though also note how the Heels allowed 207 points in their final six games after yielding 136 in the first eight contests. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 20th Returning starters: 17 Oklahoma State managed to stay in the rankings last season despite losing its final three games, as it was able to bank some of the goodwill from its 10-0 start. Some of that will remain in AP voters' minds this summer when they keep the Cowboys in the Top 25, especially after they're reminded that nearly the entire offense returns. The Cowboys used a dual-quarterback system in 2015, but it was Mason Rudolph who handled most of the snaps, and he's back for his third season of action. So, too, are nine other starters from a unit that averaged 39.5 points per game. How OSU handles defensive losses, particularly up front, will determine if it can contend in the Big 12 or fizzle out late like last fall. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 14 Georgia is one of 15 FBS schools that hired a first-time head coach in the offseason, and its move from Mark Richt to Kirby Smart was by far one of the most high-profile coaching changes. It's also one that's expected to produce results right away, though Smart is in line to start off with the Bulldogs' lowest preseason ranking[9] since 2010. Smart comes in with plenty of winning experience as Alabama's defensive coordinator, and his influence will be noticed in that area. How he's able to improve the Georgia offense, though, will be the key to how 2016 goes in Athens. All signs point to true freshman Jacob Eason starting at quarterback, and if Nick Chubb's surgically repaired knee can be at full strength in September, Georgia's high expectations won't be hard to meet. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 18 Judging Louisville by its entire 2015 season won't tell the full story of how the Cardinals improved as the year went on. They began 0-3 and sat at 2-4 after a 20-point loss at Florida State, but in that defeat, they saw true freshman quarterback Lamar Jackson begin to show what he was capable of. Jackson showed that the rest of the year, with Louisville winning six of seven and knocking off Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl (behind 453 yards of total offense from Jackson). Louisville is one of two power-conference teams, along with Colorado, that return 18 starters. That includes the bulk of a defense that was tied for ninth[10] nationally in sacks. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 19th Returning starters: 11 Oregon's run of five straight preseason Top 10 rankings[11] is going to come to an end this year, but the Ducks should still be on most ballots based on their recent history. They might also benefit from some reverse East Coast bias in that voters who aren't well-versed in Pac-12 football might err on the side of familiarity. A second consecutive season in which the team starts a graduate transfer quarterback from the FCS ranks will contribute to Oregon's lowest preseason spot since being 21st in 2008, as will uncertainty about how former Michigan coach Brady Hoke[12] will do handling the defense. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 7th Returning starters: 11 Gary Patterson's track record at TCU, one that's seen him guide the program through numerous conference switches and has culminated in a regular spot in the Big 12's upper tier, earns the Horned Frogs plenty of preseason poll street cred. So does the way the Horned Frogs ended the 2015 season, with their miraculous comeback to beat Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. The former should hold more weight than the latter, but ultimately both will factor into TCU starting off in the rankings for the second year in a row and seventh time since 2009. TCU was injury-ravaged last year, but that should help with depth in 2016, particularly on defense. And if Kenny Hill can return to the form he showed at Texas A&M in 2014, then the Frogs offense will again be clicking. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 9th Returning starters: 13 We're still shaking our heads, wondering how Iowa managed to go unbeaten in the regular season in 2015 and get within a few inches of being the Big Ten champions. AP voters will probably have a better memory of how the Hawkeyes' breakthrough season ended, with that narrow loss to Michigan State followed up by getting rolled by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Look closer, and you'll see that Iowa has a lot of the pieces who engineered that run coming back, most notably quarterback C.J. Beathard and Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Desmond King. That kind of veteran talent returning normally translates into a lofty preseason ranking the following year, but in the Hawkeyes' case, it's only going to warrant getting into the poll. Iowa can answer its critics with another strong season—one that includes tougher overall league competition—but for now, it will start out underrated. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: Not ranked Returning starters: 16 USC is the highest-ranked team in our projections that didn't finish in last year's final AP poll[13], but that's not surprising, since the Trojans finished with six losses and dropped their last two. Those defeats to Stanford (in the Pac-12 final) and Wisconsin (in the Holiday Bowl) came after Clay Helton was elevated from interim coach to the permanent leader, but in effect, 2016 will be his first full season in charge. And it won't get any easier, as the Trojans open against defending national champion Alabama in Arlington, Texas. USC is already considered a heavy underdog in that game, per 5Dimes (h/t ESPN's Brett McMurphy[14]), a number that would figure to grow if USC doesn't earn a preseason ranking. Don't expect that to happen, though, as USC has appeared in the first AP poll every year[15] since 2002. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 6th Returning starters: 10 A good sign that a program has "arrived" is when it can withstand major personnel losses but still earn a decent preseason ranking the following season. Michigan State said goodbye to a great senior class—one that won 36 games the previous three seasons—but because of what Mark Dantonio has established in East Lansing, the Spartans have officially joined the list of schools that are expected to reload instead of rebuild. Dantonio has a lot to do with that, as CBS Sports ranked him as the fifth-best coach[16] in the game. He'll only cement that place by being able to put together another strong season despite having to replace a three-year starter at quarterback (Connor Cook) and develop another set of defensive standouts to go with veteran returners Riley Bullough and Malik McDowell. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 10th Returning starters: 10 Coming off its best season in more than a decade, Ole Miss is having an offseason to forget. Bad press in the form of an NCAA investigation[17] and Laremy Tunsil's draft-day nightmare[18] overshadowed a top-10 recruiting class[19] and the return of record-setting quarterback Chad Kelly. Fortunately for the Rebels, the off-the-field headlines aren't likely to impact their preseason ranking. Voters will be more focused on Ole Miss' recent success, particularly their consecutive wins over Alabama, and how Kelly put up big numbers in the SEC than the fact his best receiver (Laquon Treadwell) and blindside protector (Tunsil) have moved on. The Ole Miss defense suffered losses, too, most notably defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, but depth on that side will make the drop-off less noticeable. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 8th Returning starters: 12 Houston's hiring of Tom Herman was universally praised last winter, but no one could have expected such an impressive first season. Going 13-1 with three wins over power-conference teams, including Florida State in the Peach Bowl, turned the Cougars from an up-and-coming team into a legitimate force. And with Herman opting to stick around for at least another season, rather than quickly bolt to a bigger job, Houston's expectations are at an all-time high. Some are pegging the Cougars as a dark-horse playoff contender[20], assuming they can match or surpass their 2015 performance. Starting off with their highest preseason ranking[21] since 1991 will help with that cause, as will a schedule that includes games against Oklahoma and Louisville. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 3rd Returning starters: 11 The winningest quarterback in Stanford history has moved on, taking with him three Rose Bowl wins. Replacing Kevin Hogan is key to the Cardinal being able to maintain their high level of play, but it helps when you return the most prolific all-purpose player in FBS history. Christian McCaffrey's ability to contribute in numerous ways on offense as well as being a special teams overachiever means the Cardinal won't be lacking for explosiveness and production. He can fill a lot of holes but not all of them, which is why Stanford will be the highest-ranked Pac-12 school but will still start on the outside of the playoff discussion. Stanford is rebuilding its offensive line and most of its defense. These areas should improve as the season goes along, but at the outset, it will mean starting outside the Top 10 despite McCaffrey's presence. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 22nd Returning starters: 17 Tennessee finished the 2014 season with four wins in its last five games, and a dominant bowl win fueled an offseason of hype that included its first preseason ranking since 2008. Now the Volunteers are riding a season-ending six-game winning streak and have upperclassmen projected as starters at nearly every position. The hype is even bigger for the Vols this time around, and that's going to translate into a lofty preseason spot. If our prediction is right, it will be their first preseason Top 10 spot[22] since 2005, but that third-ranked squad ended up 5-6. Joshua Dobbs is entering his fourth season starting at quarterback, and Tennessee returns a thunder-and-lightning duo in running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. The defense is stacked and has new leadership in well-regarded coordinator Bob Shoop. The pieces are there for success; Tennessee now just has to follow through. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 11th Returning starters: 9 Preseason polls are big on familiarity, with many of the same teams appearing year after year. Most are worthy of being in the Top 25, but it's not uncommon to see some get over-ranked based on their names and legacies. Notre Dame has traditionally fit this bill, according to Phil Steele[23]: "Notre Dame figures to be high on nearly every AP voter's ballot, as in the past decade only once have the Irish finished higher than their next season's preseason AP ranking." The only team in our projections that returns fewer starters is Ohio State, and much like the Buckeyes, the Fighting Irish are appraised as much because of their current team as what they've done in the past. Brian Kelly[24] has been Notre Dame's most successful (and consistent) coach since Lou Holtz, and this is reflected in the preseason polls. There's no shortage of talent on the roster, and how Notre Dame handles its quarterback battle between DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire might be all that separates it from a playoff run. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 13th Returning starters: 10 Being considered a product of the system doesn't help Baylor's players when they pursue professional careers, but at the college level, it's far less a knock. It's also why the Bears have been able to maintain a high level of performance the last five years thanks to Art Briles' nearly unstoppable offense. Baylor will start off rather highly in the preseason poll despite only bringing back five returning starters, including a quarterback (Seth Russell) who is coming off neck surgery and a leading rusher (Shock Linwood) who missed the spring because of foot surgery. The Bears also lost two of their top wide receivers and several offensive linemen. But the system remains, so... Baylor has averaged at least 44.5 points per game every season since 2011. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 4th Returning starters: 6 Last year's Ohio State team, for the most part, is currently participating in NFL offseason training camps after 12 Buckeyes were drafted late last month. But while the names and numbers on the uniforms might be different, there's plenty about OSU that will be quite familiar in 2016—something that's been discussed ad nauseam this offseason. The Buckeyes were young and inexperienced in 2014 when they started off 1-1, but then quarterback J.T. Barrett quickly went from an unproven redshirt freshman to a superstar in the course of a few months en route to a national title. This team has Barrett in his third year of play and no longer dealing with the distracting competition with Cardale Jones that handicapped OSU last season. "Ohio State gained momentum instead of trying to maintain it during its improbable playoff run," Bleacher Report's David Regimbal[25] wrote of the 2014 team. Urban Meyer[26] has gone 50-4 in his four seasons with OSU, a record that offsets any losses his team has, especially when boosted by several great recruiting classes. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 16th Returning starters: 17 Les Miles[27] was seemingly on his way to being fired last November, only to get carried off the field by his teammates after the powers that be held back[28] the axe. LSU responded by demolishing Texas Tech in a bowl game, and the good news just kept on coming with several draft-eligible players opting not to turn pro. "This is a windfall for us," Miles said in January, per the News-Star. "We return a big senior class. Any time that you have a senior-dominated team, you recognize that you are going to play with leaders. And guys always play their best year of football when they are most mature."[29] Voters will lean on this when they vote the Tigers into the Top 10 for the first time[30] since 2012, even though the biggest question mark (quarterback) remains. But what also remains is bulldozer running back Leonard Fournette. As long as he's rumbling for big yards, LSU is going to get the early benefit of the doubt from voters. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 12th Returning starters: 14 In theory, AP voters should take time to recognize the difference between hype and legitimate strength when putting together their preseason ballots. But sometimes the shine that comes off a star is just too bright to be able to see anything else, which is why Jim Harbaugh's second Michigan team will be quite high on most ballots. The Wolverines had three players drafted from last year's surprise 10-win team, one that relied heavily on the defense as the offense came around slowly. We could see the same thing happen in 2016, since the quarterback job is unsettled and Bleacher Report's David Kenyon[31] noted "there's no Heisman Trophy candidate emerging from this backfield" to help the passer. Still, Michigan has star power in sophomore Jabrill Peppers, now a linebacker but someone we'll expect to see on offense and special teams. And there's also Harbaugh, who worked wonders in his first season and thus has the Wolverines firmly in the discussion for 2016. That will translate into a high ranking, no doubt, but whether it also produces results is still up in the air. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 14th Returning starters: 17 Though Florida State lost three games—its most since 2011—and didn't claim a fourth consecutive ACC title, the Seminoles were able to still reach the Peach Bowl in 2015 despite an almost all-new lineup and an inconsistent offense. To accomplish that much after seeing 11 players get drafted is a testament to what Jimbo Fisher has done in Tallahassee. Now Fisher has a far more experienced team, albeit one that's still uncertain at quarterback, since Sean Maguire missed the spring because of ankle surgery and his remaining options are mostly freshmen. Top rusher Dalvin Cook also sat out part of spring ball because of shoulder surgery, but those absences should prove to help with the depth department. The FSU defense said goodbye to a first-round pick in cornerback Jalen Ramsey but might be even better than last year's 19th-ranked[32] unit. Sophomore safety Derwin James is the Seminoles' next defensive star, and overall, that group is loaded with enough talent and experience to spearhead another playoff push. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 5th Returning starters: 13 Last year, Oklahoma was coming off an embarrassing loss to Clemson to end the 2014 season, and coach Bob Stoops[33] had overhauled his coaching staff. He'd scrapped the previous run-focused offense for a return to the Air Raid, and though there was optimism, the move also reeked of desperation to get something done quickly. Whatever the case, the plan worked. The Sooners navigated the Big 12's late-season gauntlet to emerge as conference champion and be its first playoff entrant, though the title run ended with another painful loss to Clemson. However, Oklahoma heads into 2016 with a much better reputation than a year before, when it started 19th in the preseason AP rankings[34]. We then didn't know what to expect of Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield, but now voters have a much better grasp of what he can do with the ball, and this will be reflected in the Sooners' seventh Top Three preseason ranking in Stoops' 18 seasons. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 2nd Returning starters: 12 Clemson was the only unbeaten team in college football heading into the postseason, and it came darn close to winning the school's first national title since 1981. The road to the final was paved with stellar play on both sides of the ball, but now the Tigers are basically starting over on defense with just four starters returning. The "defense wins championships" mantra may prove to be true from a statistical standpoint, but the AP voters are much more interested in big names on offense. And there aren't many bigger in the game than Deshaun Watson, who figures to enter the preseason as the Heisman favorite—Odds Shark[35] has him in that spot right now—and thus will be considered enough to warrant Clemson starting out in second. The Tigers will probably get a fair number of first-place votes, too, thanks to an overwhelming strong offensive unit that includes running back Wayne Gallman and a deep corps of receivers. If a few more defensive players were coming back, we might have seen Clemson take the top spot overall, but second best will have to do. Final 2015-16 AP ranking: 1st Returning starters: 11 The defending national champion tends to get a strong helping of "benefit of the doubt" when the preseason poll comes out the next year, unless that team lost so much that going for a repeat doesn't seem very possible. Alabama lost plenty from its latest title team, but because of a stacked roster that includes former 5-star recruits[36] deep on the depth chart, not many losses are irreplaceable. The Crimson Tide are also the rare program that can lose its starting quarterback yet not have it count that much against the team. That's because Nick Saban[37] and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin[38] have shown they've been able to turn water into wine at the position the last two years with Blake Sims and Jake Coker, and a similar biblical feat doesn't seem so far fetched for 2016. "And at this point, does it really matter who wins the quarterback job?" Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel[39] wrote. Losing a Heisman Trophy-winning running back also isn't that big a loss when Alabama has young studs such as Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough to turn to, and its defense just reloads with the next batch of blue chips stepping into more pronounced roles. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports[40], unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats[41], unless otherwise noted.
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References
- ^ sportswriter Phil Steele (philsteele.com)
- ^ published on April 26 (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ correctly picked (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ appeared on (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ top passing offense (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ Mark Richt (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ least experienced (philsteele.com)
- ^ second preseason ranking (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ lowest preseason ranking (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ tied for ninth (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ preseason Top 10 rankings (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ Brady Hoke (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ last year's final AP poll (collegefootball.ap.org)
- ^ ESPN's Bre tt McMurphy (twitter.com)
- ^ every year (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ fifth-best coach (mweb.cbssports.com)
- ^ NCAA investigation (www.c bssports.com)
- ^ draft-day nightmare (www.cbssports.com)
- ^ top-10 recruiting class (olemiss.247sports.com)
- ^ dark-horse playoff contender (www.msn.com)
- ^ highest preseason ranking (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ preseason Top 10 spot (collegepollarchive.com)
- ^ Phil Steele (philsteele.com)
- ^ Brian Kelly (ble acherreport.com)
- ^ Bleacher Report's David Regimbal (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Urban Meyer (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Les Miles (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ held back (www.cbssports.com)
- ^ News-Star (www.thenewsstar.com)
- ^ first time (scores.espn.go.com)
- ^ Bleacher Report's David Kenyon (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ 19th-ranked (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ Bob Stoops (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ preseason AP rankings (scores.espn.go.com)
- ^ Odds Shark (www.oddsshark.com)
- ^ 5-star recruits (247sports.com)
- ^ Nick Saban (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Lane Kiffin (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel (www.foxsports.com)
- ^ 247Sports (www.247sports.com)
- ^ CFBStats (www.cfbstats.com)
- ^ @realBJP (www.twitter.com)
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