At this point in the draft process, it's hard to get away from the name Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil was brought in as an offensive tackle super recruit to the University of Mississippi, and he somehow managed to surpass the high expectations set for him. In a three-year career, he only allowed two sacks, all while playing in college football's murderer's row, the Southeastern Conference. He was suspended for the first half of his junior season due to NCAA violations, a non-factor in his draft perception, which forced him to go head-to-head with two of the top pass-rushers in college football, while still rusty. How did he respond? By completely shutting down Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and Auburn's Carl Lawson. A lot of praise has come around for Tunsil, but the assumption that he comes off the board with the first overall pick has underplayed the story line of other cities he fits well with. As of this moment, Play the Draft[1], a site which creates a big board from a user-based stock market function, ranks Tunsil as the top player in the 2015 NFL[2] draft. To figure out where this elite prospect might land, we'll analyze the personnel of those franchises drafting with a top five pick in this draft, plus trade up candidates. The Tennessee Titans hold the first overall pick in the draft, so they should take who perceived to be the top player on the board, right? Marcus Mariota's fatal flaw, even when he was at the University of Oregon, has been his fumbling issues. If new general manager Jon Robinson, who comes via the New England Patriots, wants to build the Tennessee franchise around his the sophomore quarterback, who was drafted second overall last draft class, then he better protect him. The team has taken steps toward that goal this off-season by signing Ben Jones of the Houston Texans, presumably to play center for the squad. The in-division move for Jones comes at the tune of $17 million over four years, starting-caliber money at the position, per Albert Breer[3] of the NFL Network. With the center position locked up, that means four of the five offensive line spots on the 2016 Titans depth chart appear to be solidified. Along with Jones on the interior offensive line should be Chance Warmack, the 10th overall pick of the 2013 NFL draft, and Jeremiah Poutasi, a third-round selection from last class. Warmack has only missed two starts in three seasons with Tennessee, while Poutasi, who was projected as a 20-year-old guard when drafted out of Utah, was forced to play right tackle for the squad for portions of his rookie year, with poor results. According to Pro Football Focus[4], Poutasi had a pass blocking grade of minus-13.1, including a minus-5.2 effort against the Houston Texans in Week 8, the last game he saw significant playing time. It was obvious early on, the Titans needed to upgrade at right tackle. Byron Bell, who was added to the Tennessee roster on August 22nd, started 16 games on that offensive line in 2015. The season wasn't pretty. There's a reason why they hold the top pick. At left tackle, the Titans should be more than fine with Taylor Lewan, the 2014 11th overall pick, starting as their premier bookend. With that being said, if they were able to convince either he or Laremy Tunsil to play right tackle for the team, they could have the best duo in the league in a couple years, if it even takes that long. Economics becomes an issue, though. Lewan is more than capable of starting at left tackle in the NFL. The highest paid right tackle in the league is Lane Johnson, who averages a salary of $11.3 million over the lifetime of his contract, but his long-term fate will be as a left tackle as Jason Peters' replacement in Philadelphia. Next on the right tackle list are Bryan Bulaga, Mitchell Schwartz and Jeremy Pernell. Those three have all signed with their respective teams over the past 12 months and change, averaging between $7 million and $6 million during the lifespan of their contracts, per Spotrac[5]. There are 17 left tackles who are slated to average more than $7 million over their contacts. Tunsil's fit in Nashville will all depend on if the team is willing to break the bank on a right tackle beyond the current market, if they are fine with one of the two tackles being a rookie contract rental or if one is willing to play on the right side of the offensive line in the first place. The Cleveland Browns haven't given national viewers much of a reason to tune into their games since at least the Derek Anderson Era, but if you don't know who Joe Thomas is by now, offensive line play probably isn't wheelhouse. Thomas, drafted third overall in 2007, has made a Pro Bowl in every one of his nine NFL season, including six first-team All-Pro nods and two second-team mentions. Last year, around the trade deadline, there were rumors that the Browns, effectively out of the playoff race with a sitting duck head coach and general manager, were going to trade the left tackle[6] to the Denver Broncos. The move never happened, Cleveland cleaned house and now Paul DePodesta, whose title is "chief strategy officer", is the de facto general manager for the franchise. DePodesta's baseball background may as well have rubber-stamped "Moneyball guy" on his forehead. If Laremy Tunsil does for some reason make it to the second slot in the draft, there's an opportunity that the Browns pull the trigger. Thomas is already 31 years old and his tradable contract ends after the 2018 season, which would be Tunsil's third year in the league with the possibility of two more seasons before the Mississippi tackle has to re-sign a major contract, as first-round picks have a fifth-year option that organizations can pick up. If the Browns want to make a move like the Philadelphia Eagles did when they took Lane Johnson as a short-term right tackle and long-term left tackle when they drafted him with fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, then it's totally plausible that this is Tunsil's landing spot. Their former right tackle, Mitchell Schwartz, signed a five-year contract with the Kansas City Chiefs for $33 million. That deal makes Schwartz the third-highest paid right tackle in the league, behind Johnson and Green Bay's Bryan Bulaga. According to Mary Kay Cabot[7] of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, there was an offer on the table for the Browns to give Schwartz in the $7.5 million per year ballpark. The team obviously has a hole at the right tackle position. They tried to fill the hole, but pulled the offer and moved on. With rumors from those like Charlie Campbell of Walter Football stating that Jalen Ramsey, a cornerback from Florida State, is the leader[8] to come off the board with the first overall pick, is it possible the Browns have their eyes fixated on Tunsil with their first-rounder? There are two teams drafting between when the Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars will be on the clock, at least on paper. They are the San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys. The Chargers are pretty set at guard, with D.J. Fluker and Orlando Franklin. Fluker was the team's 11th overall pick in 2013, and Franklin has been a long-time starter in the NFL. It's doubtful either would move to the bench, and San Diego has given out two major contracts to its bookends, recently. King Dunlap, their left tackle, signed a four-year, $28 million contract[9] 13 months ago. Joe Barksdale, their right tackle, signed a four-year, $23.5 million contract this past week, per Spotrac's numbers[10]. It's hard to imagine a way that the roster brings on a high end bookend. If you think it's hard to find a role for Laremy Tunsil in San Diego, Dallas is calculus in a firefight. They have All-Pro Tyron Smith at left tackle, consistent starter Doug Free at right tackle, sophomore La'El Collins, who was a left tackle at LSU, as a guard opposite of Zach Martin, another young Pro Bowl lineman who also was a college left tackle, and Travis Frederick, an All-Pro center. The Jaguars have their right tackle, Jeremy Parnell. He came via free agency last season from Dallas, so there's no chance the franchise moves on this quickly. Their left tackle, Luke Joeckel, has struggled throughout his NFL career. As the second overall pick in the 2013 draft, he hasn't met up to expectations in his three seasons with the team. If nothing else, Jacksonville is at least entertaining the idea of adding competition for the former Texas A&M Aggie. According to Mike Kay[11] of First Coast News, the team is bringing in Kelvin Beachum, the Pittsburgh Steelers' left tackle of recent memory, for a visit. If they aren't able to nab a bookend in free agency, and Tunsil falls, the selection of the Mississippi lineman could be the organization's best option in a must-win season, considering their current staff is 12-36 over the course of their first three seasons together. Is Laremy Tunsil going to slip to the 14th overall pick? It's highly doubtful, unless some unknown injury or off-field concern emerges. With that being said, the Oakland Raiders could be in a position to trade up for the offensive tackle. With the team's addition of Kelechi Osemele, Bruce Irvin and Sean Smith, the only obvious hole they have on their depth chart is left tackle. Their 2015 blindside protector, Donald Penn, is currently on the free agent market. Mike Tice is the team's offensive line coach, and he is one of the better developers of the position on Earth. In just a few years, with some calibrated resources, the team has gone from having a below average offensive line to competing with the best in the league in that unit, with the difference between them and the Dallas Cowboys being a left tackle. Their center, Rodney Hudson, is the third-highest paid in the league in terms of the yearly average of his contract. Osemele is the highest paid guard in the league, by nearly $4 million a year more of the next guard, Mike Iupati. It shouldn't be out of the question that the team could sellout on a generational talent to protect Derek Carr's back. They've proven that they value offensive linemen more than just about anyone in the league. Like the Oakland Raiders, the Detroit Lions have a big need at left tackle. Riley Reiff is a functional left tackle, but he's best suited as a right tackle, a slot which is unfilled for the franchise. Assuming he gets kicked over, similar to another former first-round pick, Bryan Bulaga, years ago, then there's a vacancy at left tackle. That move of Bulaga worked for the Lions' in-division rival, the Green Bay Packers, as he's now the second-highest paid right bookend in the NFL. With offensive tackles like Russell Okung visiting the team[12], it's hard to make the case that they don't want to play for a new bookend, be it via free agency or the draft. Okung has been the Seattle Seahawks' starting left tackle, when healthy, since he was drafted sixth overall in the 2010 draft. Like the Raiders, the Lions would have to to trade up from the middle of the first round into the top-five, but it's not an impossible task. In the 2013 draft, the Miami Dolphins turned their 13th and 42nd overall picks into the third overall pick. A middle of the first round selection, paired with a second-rounder, is enough to push into the top-five, especially in a class "weak" at the top, like this one is. Other dark horse franchises in the running for an offensive tackle trade up are the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos, the two teams who faced each other in Super Bowl 50. Picking 30th and 31st overall, though, nearly second-round picks, it will be much more difficult for them to pull of the feat.
References
- ^ Play the Draft (playthedraft.com)
- ^ NFL (bleacherreport.com)
- ^ per Albert Breer (twitter.com)
- ^ According to Pro Football Focus (www.profootballfocus.com)
- ^ per Spotrac (www.spotrac.com)
- ^ trade the left tackle (espn.go.com)
- ^ According to Mary Kay Cabot< small> (www.cleveland.com)
- ^ is the leader (walterfootball.com)
- ^ four-year, $28 million contract (www.google.com)
- ^ per Spotrac's numbers (www.spotrac.com)
- ^ According to Mike Kay (www.firstcoastnews.com)
- ^ Okung visiting the team (twitter.com)